A recent study has estimated that human-caused climate change led to approximately 1,500 deaths during the severe heat wave that swept across Europe from June 23 to July 2. Purdue’s Ben Clarke and climate scientist Friederike Otto recently published research demonstrating just how catastrophic the effects of increasing temperatures will be on our health. These rapid temperature increases are directly attributable to climate change.
The situation in twelve cities and metropolitan areas was studied, including London, Paris, Frankfurt, Budapest, Zagreb, Athens, Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon, Rome, Milan and Sassari. Researchers drew upon widely used formulas to estimate excess deaths compared with what was expected. They considered the influence of location, demographics and temperature on their findings.
“It’s summertime, so it’s very hot at times,” said Mr. Climate change has pushed average temperatures up by 1.2 degrees Celsius. Though some of us might still agree that summer has been delightful, climate change poses a substantial threat to most of humanity.
As a result of these factors, the study found that more than 1,100 of those recorded fatalities were people age 75 or older. This demographic is one of the most vulnerable during extreme weather events that are intensified by climate change. Our analysis showed that climate change made Lisbon’s hottest day approximately one degree Celsius hotter. By comparison, London experienced a much greater spike ‒ almost four degrees Celsius ‒ that’s around 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Culturally, Portugal’s position along the warm edge of the Atlantic Ocean plays a strong role in moderating Lisbon’s temperatures and keeping them stable. In other impacted areas, greenhouse gases increased temperatures by 2-4C (3.6-7.2F). Those results were in line with another study this year published in Nature Medicine. The calculations in this new research found that since 2015, every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature across Europe has resulted in an additional 18,547 annual summer heat-related deaths.
The 1,500 deaths reported can be considered the centerpoint in a broader range of climate-related death estimates. These estimates range from roughly 1,250 to 1,700 deaths. This latest research highlights the need for drastic climate action in order to address the profound, widespread impacts of climate change on health.
Friederike Otto highlighted the direct link between climate change and these fatalities: “Those 1,500 people have only died because of climate change, so they would not have died if it would not have been for our burning of oil, coal and gas in the last century.”
Gary Konstantinoudis, one of the researchers who worked on the study, referred to heat waves as “silent killers.” He noted that the health impacts of these extreme waves are often hard to quantify. He pointed to poor understanding of the true mortality cost of heat waves and climate change. Under pressure from liability concerns, many healthcare systems will still not report these events as underlying cause of death.
Dr. Jonathan Patz commented on the significance of studies like this one, asserting that they are “ending the guessing game on the health harms from continued burning of fossil fuels.”
Dr. Courtney Howard reinforced this point by stating, “Studies like this help us see that reducing fossil fuel use is health care.” These discoveries extend beyond the health of the individual. They call for a complete reassessment of our energy policies and practices to mitigate climate effects in the future.
