The cold war between Israel and Iran is speeding into a hot conflict. China is positioning itself as a potential mediator, attempting to play the role of a regional voice of reason in this increasingly volatile region. The Chinese government is deeply devoted to maintaining social stability and economic prosperity. This increased attention is a result of the increasing oil prices that have long threatened the country’s energy security. As the top consumer of Iranian oil and heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude imports, China’s interests align closely with the region’s stability.
In unprecedented comments, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has condemned Israel’s military actions as war crimes and violations of international law. His comments speak to China’s larger efforts to position itself as a responsible global actor during times of international turmoil. The Chinese government is trying to make quick diplomatic moves to stay on top of the developing and complicated Middle Eastern geopolitics. They’re primarily interested in protecting their anointed economic investments — such as large portions of Israel’s flourishing high-tech industry.
Sometimes overlooked is China’s impressive claim of successful diplomacy. It was the PRC’s role earlier this year mediating the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia that highlighted Beijing’s increasing commitment to regionalist causes. In July 2024, China brokered an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, further illustrating its commitment to playing a diplomatic role in the region.
Economic Interests Drive Diplomatic Efforts
One reason why China’s motives are not simply about resolving conflicts, but rather economically-driven. As the world’s largest consumer of Iranian oil, China relies on the Middle East for more than half of its crude imports. This dependency influences the way it seeks to resolve regional flash points. According to Alam Saleh, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, “War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but the oil price and gas energy security in general.”
China’s stakes are substantial. Any instability in the region that raises oil prices would immediately impact its economy, creating pressure to avoid an all out war. Saleh notes that for China, stability is the priority. He clearly states their lack of interest in advocating for military solutions to conflicts, even those involving our enemies. This pragmatic perspective underlies China’s whole-of-government diplomatic campaign. The country is hoping to establish friendly climates for its investments in the wider region, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative that encompasses a number of important Middle Eastern nations.
Adding to this is the fact that China’s own strategic partnership with Tehran, agreed in 2021, complicates its interests. China is now busy attempting to mediate disputes that include Iran. Yet its tight relations with Iran might limit its role as a neutral intermediary. Analysts like Evangeline Cheng point out that “this case reinforces the dilemma that China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power that is capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties in some of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s ability to play such a role.”
Limited Leverage in a Complex Landscape
Despite these ambitions, experts are cautioning that China’s global diplomatic achievement is comparatively thin. William Yang highlights that “it’s clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the Middle East while taking advantage of the US presence in the region.” The United States has always been a key player in the politics of the Middle East. So it has become the security guarantor for its regional allies.
China’s position is further strained by its lack of military influence in the region. Cheng emphasizes, “Without military capabilities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s role is necessarily constrained.” This reality makes it difficult for China’s mediation aspirations to succeed amid such intractable conflicts.
Indeed, China’s role has not escaped notice at international fora. With Russia and Pakistan, China advocated for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” in the UN Security Council. These types of actions demonstrate an intention to work within global governance mechanisms and allow for the country to flaunt its commitment to peace.
A Dual Approach to Diplomacy
China’s strategies illustrate a dual approach towards diplomacy: maintaining close economic ties while advocating for peace. New year, new war as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran. In reaction to these developments, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for both sides to de-escalate tensions to ensure broader regional stability. Analysts warn that China’s model is motivated more by self-interest than ideological solidarity.
Evangeline Cheng notes that “China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited.” The Middle East has its own types of very complicated, retrospective allegiances and hatreds. This complex landscape is a discouraging place for any outside mediator hoping to bring about peace.
