A new study shows disturbing forecasts on how children born in 2020 will face more extreme climate events over the course of their lives. Together, the findings paint a pretty scary picture. Children today are two to seven times more likely to experience climate-related extreme events, such as heatwaves, storms, droughts and floods than those born in 1960. Climate change and the impacts of our environmental destruction can no longer be ignored. Thousands of children are sending you a clear and deep signal of concern about their future.
A new analysis published in the journal Nature paints a scary picture. Almost 80 percent of kids under the age of 12 are worried about climate change. For more on climate justice, read Researchers compare the vast humanitarian impacts of climate breakdown today to those that accompanied the U.S. Extreme weather events, including unprecedented heatwaves and devastating storms, are becoming more frequent, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate issues.
According to the study’s lead researcher, Luke Grant, stabilizing the climate at approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is crucial for mitigating risks. He explains, “By stabilizing our climate around 1.5°C [2.7°F] above pre-industrial temperatures, about half of today’s young people will be exposed to an unprecedented number of heatwaves in their lifetime. Under a 3.5°C [6.5°F] scenario, more than 90% will experience that level of exposure for the rest of their lives. This amazing contrast emphasizes how much better or worse life could be due to the course we are on with global warming right now.
The report specifies that children born in 2020 face a staggering 52% chance of experiencing extreme heat exposure during their lifetimes under a limited global warming scenario of 1.5°C by 2100. Just 16% of people born in 1960 will face such circumstances. Should global temperatures rise to 3.5°C by the end of the century, the figures become even more alarming: approximately 92% of today’s five-year-olds will be subjected to deadly heatwaves, alongside a significant risk of crop failures and floods.
The implications of these findings go far beyond their statistical significance. That same study cautions that a 6.5°F (3.5°C) increase in global average temperatures would spell catastrophic outcomes. For example, children born in 2020 could have a lifetime risk of experiencing as much as 29% crop failures and 14% floods. This situation paints a very scary picture with significant implications for the impacts of food security and safe environmentally sustainable living conditions for our future generations.
Beyond race, socioeconomic factors are equally important in determining the level of exposure to such climate risks. The study illustrates an alarming trend: unless policies change course, 92% of today’s five-year-olds born to low-income families can expect to face lifetime risks from climate extremes. Yet, only 79% of better-off children are impacted. This discrepancy begs the question of equity and fairness in our nation’s response to climate change.
Luke Grant elaborates on the broader implications of these findings: “The same picture emerges for other climate extremes examined, though with slightly lower affected fractions of the population. Yet the same unfair generational differences in unprecedented exposure is observed.” He emphasizes the critical importance of focusing on preventing these inequities with immediate and focused action.
The researchers emphasize that “the actions taken today to reduce emissions are therefore crucial in shaping the climate future of current and coming generations.” They call on policymakers and the rest of society to recognize intergenerational equity when developing plans to address climate change.
“This is a stringent threshold that identifies populations facing climate extremes far beyond what could be expected without man-made climate change.” – Luke Grant
The projections are alarming, the researchers want to emphasize that taking action now can change these scenarios. By prioritizing emissions reduction and sustainable practices, society has the opportunity to protect current and future generations from the worst effects of climate change.
