As we enter into hurricane season, Canadians are being warned to get ready for possible storms even before they are predicted. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a very active storm season to come. They predict a below-average hurricane season with 13-19 named storms. Six to 10 hurricanes are likely to form this season. Of these, anywhere from three to five could intensify into strong major hurricanes with winds over 177 kilometers per hour.
These warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures will likely lead to an above-average hurricane season. According to meteorologist Megan Kirchmeier-Young, the frequency of tropical storms has not gone up. She stressed that their severity is increasing. “That is something we expect to continue,” she added, emphasizing the trend toward more powerful storms.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has calculated that approximately 35 to 40 percent of all tropical storms typically enter the Canadian response zone. For Canada, that translates into an average of two to four named storms annually. That’s because last year’s active hurricane season produced 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. In fact, only one storm moved into the Canadian zone—long-lived Ernesto—but it remained offshore and caused minimal or no impacts.
Bob Robichaud, of the Canadian Hurricane Centre, made an emphatic defense of preparation in the face of perilous weather. He commented on the unpredictability of storm impacts, stating, “Although we can predict the level of activity, we can’t necessarily predict … if any will make landfall and what the impacts might be.” This unpredictability makes it all the more important for Canadians to be aware and prepared this hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, peaks on average in September and ends on November 30. The Canadian zone needs to remain vigilant in the paths of storms yet to come their way. This is particularly critical given trends of rising storm intensity and maximal rainfall. Kirchmeier-Young noted an increase in rain rates associated with storms, warning that “sea level rise is exacerbating any storm surge and coastal flooding.”
