OAG, the world’s leading travel data and analytics company, just released an interesting analysis. This decline, as they confirmed in a follow up analysis, was not obvious everywhere—at least not at first. The U.S. has been the most popular and consistent travel destination for Canadians. Today, however, it’s facing a meteoric fall in expected bookings, with estimates projecting a 70 percent decline month-over-month.
Barry Choi, a Toronto-based personal finance and travel expert, told me he wasn’t surprised by these findings. As Choi notes, some U.S. cities are particularly ill-prepared to bear the brunt. This is particularly true for popular destinations such as Florida and border cities popular with plentiful day-trippers. Even places like California, which have historically attracted less Canadian traffic, will likely suffer a drop.
“Generally speaking, if we are talking about hotspots for sure, Florida or those border cities which get Canadians on day trips are going to get hit really, really hard and even places traditionally that wouldn’t normally, like California, I think you are going to see decreases in numbers overall,” – Barry Choi
OAG’s summer peak season analysis tracked consistent downward trends across booking data. It compared those findings to the same time last year. The consulting firm thinks the changes could have a major impact, reducing airline seat capacity. This is particularly acute during the peak travel months of July and August.
For Canada’s two largest airlines, Air Transat and Air Canada, these transatlantic leisure diversification patterns are clearly on their radar. So far, they haven’t done much to truly change their schedules. CityNews contacted all three airlines to ask whether they plan to increase or reduce the number of flights in their schedule.
Laura Macneil, a resident of Toronto, takes three or four trips to the U.S. every year. Now, she’s reconsidering her travel itinerary. At the moment, she’s even considering delaying her next trip until 2025.
“I have two brothers that live in California, and it’s become incredibly unaffordable for Canadians to travel to the U.S., even just a trip to visit family is something that is on the table about whether we will make it happen this summer,” – Laura Macneil
