In 2024, Canada spent an estimated 1.37% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense, according to official NATO figures. This positioned Canada as the fifth lowest spender among the 31 NATO members with a standing army, yet it ranked eighth highest in absolute terms when excluding Iceland. Meanwhile, the United States trade deficit with Canada stood at approximately $72.3 billion in 2023, a figure that former President Donald Trump has often exaggerated to $200 billion. Additionally, U.S. border authorities reported about 2.9 million encounters with migrants nationwide in fiscal year 2024, with a notable increase in attempts to cross from Canada.
Canada's defense spending in 2024 at 1.37% of GDP marked a continuation of its historically modest military investment relative to other NATO members. This percentage reflects a decline from the years of Trump's first presidency when Canada maintained expenditure above 1%, fluctuating from 1.44% in 2017 to 1.29% in 2019. Despite this seemingly low percentage, Canada's large economy allows significant defense spending in absolute terms.
"Despite spending less than 2%, Canada is still one of the biggest spenders on military stuff — its economy is larger than most NATO members, so in absolute terms, it buys and spends a lot," said Saideman.
This perspective counters Trump's assertion regarding Canada's military capabilities.
"They don’t, essentially, have a military. They have a very small military," remarked Donald Trump.
Canada operates a joint defense initiative with the U.S. through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), highlighting continued defense collaboration between the two nations.
On the economic front, the U.S.-Canada trade relationship remains significant, with a trade deficit of $72.3 billion recorded in 2023. Despite Trump's frequent claims of a $200 billion deficit, actual figures suggest otherwise. The economic interdependence between the two countries extends to energy resources.
"If (hypothetically) Canadian oil were not available, many US refineries would struggle to find heavy crude elsewhere, and they might even stop operating in such a scenario," stated Pavel Molchanov.
In terms of border security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection documented approximately 2.9 million encounters with migrants nationwide in fiscal year 2024. Of these encounters, about 1.5% occurred at locations other than legal ports of entry along the northern border. A total of 198,929 encounters — roughly 6.9% — took place at the Canadian border.
The number of encounters between northern ports surged to 23,721 in fiscal year 2024 from just 2,238 in fiscal year 2022, reflecting more than a tenfold increase over two years. This upward trend correlates with a rise in migrants from distant countries like India who travel to Canada and subsequently attempt to cross into the United States.
Regarding drug trafficking, recent data indicates that merely 10 pounds of fentanyl, constituting about 0.2% of total seizures, were confiscated at the Canadian border during fiscal year 2024. In contrast, the Mexican border accounted for 4,409 pounds or approximately 97.2% of fentanyl seizures.
"As a source of fentanyl to the United States: It is dynamic, and things are always changing, but our assessment right now is that we’re not, in any way, a significant source of fentanyl going to the United States," commented Aaron McCrorie.
"It’s clear that the vast, vast majority of fentanyl going to the United States is coming from Mexico," he added.
These insights challenge Trump's portrayal of Canada as a major fentanyl conduit.
"The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive. The fentanyl coming through Mexico is massive," Trump asserted.
However, experts and U.S. governmental bodies provide a different perspective on Canada's role in fentanyl trafficking.
"Canada is not known to be a major source of fentanyl, other synthetic opioids or precursor chemicals to the United States," reported the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking.
