In a landscape of shifting defence priorities, Canada faces mounting pressure to meet NATO's defence spending target of 2% of GDP. Former Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has acknowledged that increasing the nation's defence budget would indeed affect its spending ratio. Although the figure might rise, he cautioned that it may not align with expectations. As discussions progress, the absence of a clear strategy to meet the 2032 goal remains a concern among analysts.
President Donald Trump has continuously urged NATO allies to commit 5% of their GDP to defence, intensifying the spotlight on Canada's current and future spending commitments. According to NATO figures from June 2024, Canada allocated 1.37% of its GDP to defence. The Liberal government anticipates this figure will rise to 1.76% by the decade's end, eventually reaching the 2% benchmark in 2032. However, the Parliamentary Budget Officer has projected a more conservative estimate of 1.58% by 2030, highlighting the potential shortfall.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated Canada's intention to hit the 2% target by 2032, aligning with a commitment made by NATO allies in 2014 and reaffirmed in 2023. Despite these assurances, Canada has consistently struggled to meet this benchmark, raising questions about the feasibility of reaching it within the proposed timeline.
Defence Minister Bill Blair has expressed optimism about achieving the NATO target within a few years, should it become necessary. He emphasized the importance of managing spending responsibly and strategically. Blair remarked:
“We’d rather do defence spending through investments based on growing our GDP.” – Blair
Blair further stressed the urgency of the matter, stating that Canada should aim to:
“get this job done as quickly as possible” – Blair
Despite these declarations, some military analysts remain skeptical about whether the 2032 target is attainable. The lack of a concrete plan adds to their concerns, suggesting that reaching the goal may require more than optimistic projections.
