A recent study reveals that British Columbia's vineyards are likely to experience a dramatic increase in grape-growing days over the next 75 years, driven by climate change. Led by Canadian PhD student Massimiliano Nicola Lippa from Italy's prosecco region, the study utilized the Winkler index to assess climate conditions. This index is a climate classification system that assumes grape vines do not grow under 10 degrees Celsius. The findings suggest that the region could transition from the coldest wine-producing climate to the third climate class by 2100, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the industry.
The shift in climate is expected to bring warmer and wetter conditions, potentially accompanied by more frequent extreme storms, droughts, wildfires, pest outbreaks, and heatwaves. Currently, British Columbia's grape-growing regions are categorized in the coldest class, but the warming trend could spur an explosion in wine diversity. As temperatures rise, the already "phenomenal quality" of Canada's wines might diversify further. However, the competitive advantage of British Columbia's wine industry will heavily depend on how wineries adapt to these changes.
Michael Bartier, general manager of Bartier Bros. Vineyard and Winery, experienced firsthand the challenges posed by climate change. The winery suffered significant losses during last year's cold snap, losing its entire crop and sustaining irreparable damage to many vines. Nevertheless, Bartier remains cautiously optimistic about the future.
“It’s been a relief. I was able to sleep all winter,” – Bartier
Bartier anticipates a rebound for his winery despite last year's setbacks.
“It won’t be a full crop, but it will be a significant crop.” – Bartier
However, he acknowledges that past complacency may have contributed to their current predicament.
“I think we got a little bit too comfortable.” – Bartier
Lippa's research adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that Canada's wines could see increased diversity with warming temperatures. The study warns that warmer conditions may cause grapes to ripen faster, potentially altering the alcohol content, flavor profiles, and color of red wines. A shift from red to white grapes is also anticipated, with more temperature-tolerant red grapes like Cabernet Franc and Pinot Noir possibly replacing old plots of Merlot and Syrah.
Paolo Tarolli, a professor at the University of Padova, highlights the urgent need for new technology to assist wine producers in managing the impacts of climate change. Adaptation will be key to maintaining competitiveness in an evolving climate landscape.
“There’s a lot of latitude in Canada to move, which I think puts us in a really advantageous position compared to other places in Europe,” – Lippa
The Canadian wine industry may have geographical advantages over European counterparts due to this latitude. However, the adaptability of producers will be critical.
“But producers need to be ready to change because inflexibility is going to be a really, really bad.” – Lippa
Bartier reflects on the dual nature of climate change impacts.
“It is climate change. We ended up with a cold event that comes hand and hand with the heat.” – Michael Bartier
The study underscores the importance of strategic responses from wineries to leverage potential opportunities while mitigating risks associated with climate change.
