With Bolivia’s presidential run-off election still a week away, the political situation is changing fast. On the other is Luis Arce, a member of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, current president and democratically re-elected. On the other, two challengers are vying for the presidency: Rodrigo Paz, a senator and son of former president Jaime Zamora, and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a former president who finished second in the initial round of voting. This election is more important than ever before. For the first time since 2006, the MAS party has not posted a candidate in the run-off.
Luis Arce, former finance minister under Evo Morales, is facing a treacherous political landscape. Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, left an indelible imprint on the country. In 2008 he kicked out the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), and in 2013, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The MAS party has ruled Bolivian politics since it was established in 2006. New political headwinds are testing its decades-long supremacy.
The Candidates
Rodrigo Paz has cast himself as the moderate alternative, calling for pro-market reforms but taking a tempered approach to austerity. His running mate, Edman Lara, is an evangelical Christian and former sheriff’s deputy. Combined, they hope to reach a wider electorate as the administration faces increasing frustration with the Biden Administration.
“Later this month, there’ll be an election in Bolivia,” – Marco Rubio
In the first round, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga came in with just under 27 percent of the vote. He provides an alternative vision for Bolivia. Juan Pablo Velasco, a 38-year-old, born-in-the-tech entrepreneur is his running mate. While worrying about those encroachments, he has stirred up the hornet’s nest with his praise of bad social media that promotes violence against Indigenous peoples. Yet, under this watchful eye, both Quiroga and Velasco convey a strong desire to build deeper relations with the United States.
Public Sentiment and Challenges Ahead
Public sentiment in Bolivia remains almost entirely dependent on economic conditions. Numerous citizens have voiced concern about access to other critical services, especially with increasing fuel shortages. Kathryn Ledebur highlights the challenges faced by everyday Bolivians:
“People are waiting in line for hours at a time for gasoline.”
According to recent polling Paz sits at a high approval rating of 42.5%. This indicates deepening support just ahead of the closely-watched election. Not only he, but Quiroga will have to learn how to deal with the dangers of a divided and politically complex electorate.
The MAS party’s inability to push a candidate this far marks a significant change in Bolivian politics. Some analysts argue this may dramatically shift the configuration of political loyalties in the nation.
“There will be a reconfiguration, but it could take a long time.” – Kathryn Ledebur
Implications for U.S.-Bolivia Relations
Both Paz and Quiroga have expressed their desire to re-establish relations with the United States. This is a major departure from Morales’ administration. They often lobbied against U.S. intervention in Bolivian affairs. The fate of Bolivia’s bilateral relationship—and its foreign policy and economic strategies—towards their northern neighbor will be determined in the next election.
Unless there is a major change in executive leadership, experts predict little will change in contentious U.S. domestic policy. It can profoundly change the future of international relations. Even more than that though, the candidates’ competing approaches—Paz’s moderate position of support, Quiroga’s conventional conservative hard-line policies—have the chance to reopen diplomatic doors.
During the subject run-off election, as voters were getting ready to go to the polls, it was still not clear which way the election would go. The winners and losers of this election will have implications much longer, possibly altering the course of regional dynamics as well.
