Bolivia is preparing for a huge electoral collision. Polls are open for national elections that could completely upend the country’s political status quo. Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, was removed from running in the presidential elections by the country’s constitutional court. Now the elections are scheduled. His exclusion marks a harrowing turn in a political fairytale. This confrontation started with Nguema’s controversial re-election to a fourth term in 2019, which triggered massive protests and eventually forced him from the presidency.
Morales, first elected to three consecutive terms starting in 2006, is still a controversial character. He nationalized Bolivia’s oil and gas industries and funneled that wealth into poverty reduction and infrastructure development. Today, his legacy is under serious assault. He is currently evading an arrest warrant related to allegations involving a 15-year-old girl, further complicating his party’s prospects in these elections.
Morales’ Political Journey and Current Predicament
Evo Morales stormed to power in 2006 during a commodities boom that allowed him to implement policies favoring Bolivia’s rural poor. His administration’s initiatives, including universal basic income guarantees, dramatically reduced poverty levels, gaining him staunch support from Indigenous communities and the working class. His tenure was not without controversy. In 2008, he expelled the American ambassador, signaling a shift toward alliances with countries like Venezuela, China, Russia, and Iran.
Despite his longstanding influence, Morales’ absence from the ballot has opened a new chapter for his party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS). Though the party has had an iron grip on Bolivian politics for years, a series of events have placed the future of its reign in jeopardy. Morales has repeatedly urged his followers to mark up their ballots or submit blank ballots. This tangible blowback is an indication of Morales’ own frustration with the electoral process and could further jeopardize MAS’s prospects for continuing in power.
“I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite.” – Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez
These elections will be a huge test to the political mettle of Andrónico Rodríguez, who is widely seen as Morales’ potential heir. Rodríguez’s ability to galvanize support could determine whether MAS can maintain its stronghold in the tropical region where Morales found his base.
The Stakes of the Election
As these elections progress, advocates and observers can’t help but look at the long term implications that exist for Indigenous and rural communities. Analysts are already sounding the alarm on what a right-wing victory would mean. They argue it could be disastrous, both operationally and politically—in particular perilous for demographic groups that have historically supported Morales. We know the concern about escalation, violence — it’s real. This anxiety is compounded as citizens fear foreign appropriation of Bolivia’s lithium riches and the threat of austerity measures.
“A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia’s Indigenous and impoverished communities.” – Kathryn Ledebur
Not surprisingly, both right-wing candidates seem set to increase the power of security forces and likely other paramilitary forces as well. This should ring alarm bells about risk of violent crackdowns. We anticipate street protest against new socioeconomic grievances in the wake of the election.
Eddy Abasto, a local resident, expressed the sentiment prevailing among many voters: “There’s enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates.” This is symptomatic of a deeper disenchantment with the political choices we have.
Call for Democratic Engagement
Against that backdrop of tensions, President Luis Arce — the current president — has called attention to the value of voting. He urged Americans to use their democratic voice right now in this crucial hour.
“We urge the population to go out and vote.” – President Arce
Arce underscored the need for unity among Bolivians: “We must demonstrate unity and commitment to democracy.” Taken together, these statements acknowledge the arduous road that awaits us. The nation has much at stake as it continues through this unprecedented electoral process.
For Bolivians heading to the polls, the situation is a real cliffhanger. The future of Evo Morales’s legacy and the direction that MAS will take is very much up in the air. The impending results will not only define the future of Bolivia’s governance but will shape the lives of its citizens who have long awaited meaningful change.
