Belarus is set to hold a presidential election on Sunday, with President Alexander Lukashenko vying for an unprecedented seventh term in office. Originally scheduled for August, authorities postponed the election to deep winter, raising questions about the timing and transparency of the process. The nation operates under a simple majority system, requiring citizens to elect their head of state and legislature every five years. Lukashenko, who has ruled with an iron grip for three decades, has shown little interest in traditional campaigning this time around.
President Lukashenko, 70, told factory workers last week, “To be honest I don’t follow it. I simply don’t have time for it.” His dismissive approach to the election reflects a broader environment criticized by international observers. Former United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented that elections could not be free or fair "in an environment where censorship is ubiquitous and independent media outlets no longer exist."
Despite the lack of a formal campaign from Lukashenko, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has registered four candidates challenging him: Sergei Sirankov from the Communist Party, former parliament member Anna Kanapatskaya, Alexander Khizhnyak of the Republican Labour Party, and Oleg Gaidukevich from the Liberal Democrats. However, critics argue that these candidates do not pose a significant threat to Lukashenko's rule.
“These are not candidates in the normal meaning of this word. They are just playing in this campaign. They are not competing with Lukashenko.” – Tatsiana Chulitskaya, a Belarusian academic at Vilnius University in Lithuania
In a strategic move ahead of the election, Lukashenko released 23 political prisoners last week, described by state media as a humanitarian gesture. This action appears timed to coincide with the final days before citizens head to the polls. Meanwhile, a December opinion poll indicated that 85.5 percent of registered voters plan to participate in the upcoming election.
Voting eligibility extends to Belarusians aged 18 and above. However, overseas Belarusians face restrictions and can only vote by returning to Belarus to cast their ballot at regional polling stations. Election results are anticipated by February 5, with a potential second round scheduled for February 12 if necessary.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a prominent opposition figure exiled from Belarus, condemned the election process as orchestrated by the regime to maintain its grip on power.
“This is a military-style operation; a performance staged by the regime to hold on to power.” – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Tsikhanouskaya urged Belarusians to remain cautious and wait for a genuine opportunity for change.
“You have to keep safe until the real moment of possibility.” – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Political analysts and experts also doubt the likelihood of mass protests given the harsh winter weather conditions in Belarus.
“There won’t be mass protests in freezing January.” – Valery Karbalevich, Belarusian political analyst
Amidst these developments, Oleg Gaidukevich, one of the registered candidates and chairman of the Liberal Democrats, emphasized the need for healthy competition and dialogue within Belarusian politics.
“There must be healthy competition, discussion.” – Oleg Gaidukevich, Liberal Democrats chairman
The atmosphere surrounding this election remains charged with skepticism and concern about its legitimacy. Human rights group Viasna reported that over 3,270 individuals have been convicted for participating in protests since 2020. This backdrop of repression continues to cast a shadow over Belarus’s electoral landscape.
