Vladimir Putin is landing in New Delhi as we speak. He will return home to unprecedented honors usually reserved for India’s closest, most loyal partners. This visit is undeniably a historic occasion for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It happens against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and changing coalitions. Modi and Putin have not seen each other in close to a year, since their December 2021 summit. The main focus of the future negotiations will be on the offsets deals, particularly regarding Russia producing its advanced Su-57 stealth fighter jet under license in India.
India’s historical ties with Russia date back to the Cold War. Through that period, Moscow grew to be New Delhi’s most reliable arms provider and partner in building a self-sufficient defense industrial base. Russian Su-30 jets are the backbone of India’s 29 fighter squadrons today. This dominance further reflects the deep military relationship that exists between India and Russia. In recent months, India has made overtures to the United States, cutting back on its purchases of Russian oil and shifting its focus toward American energy resources.
Shifting Alliances and Defense Deals
As Putin reportedly prepares for his visit, a proposed arms deal for the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet dominates the headlines. As negotiations resume these discussions are front and center. This cutting-edge military aircraft is both an important boost to India’s national defense and the nation’s airpower projection. The ongoing negotiations highlight India’s desire to better defend its own territory and interests, all while threading the needle of a complicated international order.
However, for all these developments, India’s dependence on Russian military hardware is still considerable. This is where the Kremlin has served as a critical lifeline for India. As Western sanctions were rolled out against Russia as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine, India did a 180 and sharply increased imports of Russian crude oil. The steep discount completely changed the calculus for India, which jumped at the chance to become one of Moscow’s four largest oil buyers.
Modi is even personally committed to strengthening ties with Washington. That’s surely the case as India just committed to buy 2.2 million metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S. His government is being attacked for this balancing act. Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation noted, “We have hundreds of millions of poor people. We need to raise them out above the poverty line… to deal with that, India needs to maintain a decent working relationship with all great powers.”
The Tensions of Trade
Putin’s visit comes as economic friction has increased between the two allies. India is now negotiating its own trade deal with the United States after being on the receiving end of 50% tariffs levied by then-President Donald Trump. This two-pronged approach is indicative of Modi’s efforts to maintain a strong strategic partnership with both Washington and Moscow. Just last month, India and the U.S. finalized such an agreement. This 10-year framework is aimed at improving industry coordination, technology transfer, and increasing intelligence sharing.
India’s moves are indicative of the subtle, hedging approach espoused by analysts as India’s version of diplomatic hedging. Kanti Bajpai from Ashoka University explained, “Apart from the oil and the arms, it’s diplomatic hedging, showing Beijing and Washington that Delhi has a third option and gives it a bit more bargaining room.” Such an approach would enable India to thread the needle with great powers while advancing its national interests.
Striking a balance among these relationships is not without peril. Nandan Unnikrishnan cautioned against adding unnecessary complications to already tense international dynamics: “You don’t want to inject any more irritants into a difficult phase as it exists today.” India seeks to deepen its global role and influence. At the same time, it needs to continue to delicately navigate its long held relationship and ties with Moscow.
An Ambivalent Relationship
India’s relationship with Russia continues to be robust, but it is being tested and is changing under sustained international pressure. Analysts argue that India’s recent overtures to Washington should not absolve it of a long and deep relationship with Russia. “It’s a sign that India is willing to stick with the Russians,” noted Kanti Bajpai. Lawyers may understand, though, that the key for policymakers is to not lose favor with either great power. That understanding advances India’s great power strategy.
Furthermore, Unnikrishnan argues there is “no contradiction… in having an ambitious trade deal with the United States and having a working relationship with Russia.” This strategic orientation accentuates India’s exceptional role as it threads the needle in the shifting geopolitical currents, all while advancing its national development.
