NASA has significantly downgraded the threat level of asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a "city-killer" due to its potential for regional devastation. The 180-foot-wide space rock had raised concerns in January when its impact odds rose above 1%. However, recent observations have shifted the odds dramatically, indicating that it is now more likely to strike the moon than Earth.
Initially, asteroid 2024 YR4 was classified at level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which denotes that a space object is capable of causing regional devastation. On February 18, the probability of an impact peaked at 1 in 32, or 3.1%. This marked the highest impact probability NASA had recorded for a space object of this size.
However, overnight observations between February 19 and February 20 provided new data that eased fears of an Earth impact. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies has since adjusted the odds to a much lower 1 in 360, or 0.28%. This significant reduction in threat level has led to a reclassification of the asteroid to level 1 on the Torino Scale, signifying no unusual level of danger.
The latest data suggest that the asteroid is now more likely to hit the moon. NASA's Planetary Defence blog reports an increased lunar impact probability of 1%. While this still remains relatively low, it represents a new focus for astronomers tracking the asteroid's path.
A collision with an asteroid of this size would have been an extraordinary event, occurring roughly once in a thousand years. Fortunately, such an impact seems increasingly improbable for Earth. Nevertheless, the asteroid will be visible from our planet this weekend, allowing a rare 'once in a decade' opportunity for observation.
The initial concern over asteroid 2024 YR4 stemmed from its potential to cause significant damage. Such asteroids pose a considerable threat due to their ability to inflict widespread destruction. However, thanks to diligent tracking and analysis by astronomers, the immediate threat has been mitigated.
