An international team of experts, called the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), recently convened to discuss potential strategies in response to asteroid 2024 YR4. Discovered in late 2024 by astronomers using a telescope in Chile, this celestial body is part of the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). Although researchers have determined that the asteroid will cross paths with Earth in 2028 without posing a collision risk, concerns linger due to its potential impact in 2032.
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) agree that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of impacting Earth in 2032, with probabilities of 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively. The asteroid, currently moving away from Earth along a straight-line trajectory, presents challenges in accurately calculating its future path. The International Asteroid Warning Network has listed it for further observation, as astronomers have limited time to measure its orbit accurately before it fades from view in April 2025.
Measuring between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, asteroid 2024 YR4 bears a striking similarity to the Chelyabinsk meteor that caused significant damage in Russia in 2013. If it were to impact Earth, it could trigger an explosion up to 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the site, depending on whether it detonates in the atmosphere or strikes the surface directly. This potential for destruction has prompted continued monitoring by space agencies.
The asteroid's orbit is currently classified as Level 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a need for close observation but not yet confirming an impact risk. The next major opportunity for observation will occur in 2028. However, experts warn that this may not provide sufficient time to implement any deflection strategies if required.
In the event that asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a more imminent threat, a mission akin to previous deflection efforts could be launched. Such an undertaking would require years of preparation and international collaboration. Meanwhile, NASA remains vigilant, keeping an eye on possible impact zones spanning from the eastern Pacific Ocean to northern South America and the Atlantic Ocean, extending to Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 underscores the ongoing need for global cooperation in monitoring and responding to potential extraterrestrial threats. While the immediate risk remains low, continuous observation and preparedness are crucial in safeguarding Earth from future impacts.
