Alberta is dealing with a serious outbreak of measles. By midday Monday, that total was up to 809. That would be a very concerning jump – 31 new cases were reported this past weekend alone. Our medical and environmental experts deeply worry about the message this outbreak sends, especially with summer travel season upon us.
Dr. Paul Parks, an emergency room doctor in Medicine Hat, Alberta, Canada. Aside from the public health aspect, he is seeing the immediate, personal impact of measles on his patients. In a blog post, he stresses the urgency of addressing this outbreak the longer people go to treatment. Dr. Sam Wong, president of the Alberta Medical Association’s section of pediatrics, raised alarm bells. He cautioned against the possibility of widespread transmission.
Case Count Continues to Climb
The recent outbreak of measles cases has caused quite a stir among public health officials. According to provincial data, nearly all cases are unimmunized. This perfect storm poses enhanced risks to vulnerable populations, including children under five, persons with weakened immune systems, and pregnant people. For weeks, health officials have sent out alarm bells. They argue that official counts likely represent only the “tip of the iceberg,” since countless cases go unreported or undetected.
Caroline Colijn, a professor and Canada Research Chair at Simon Fraser University, predicts that Alberta’s measles case counts will continue to rise for months. She said, “This is definitely not in the mode of slowing down at this point. Colijn’s predictions paint a very grim picture of the future of public health in Alberta.
“In a few weeks’ time, if the numbers keep going … I think that we’re going to hit over 1,000 [cases]. We’re going to hit more measles cases in Alberta than they have in the States,” – Dr. Sam Wong
As of May 31, 64 Albertans have been admitted to the hospital with measles. Of those, ten were patients requiring intensive care. Now, five of these people are still hospitalized, underscoring the threat that the outbreak places on the health care system.
Risks Associated with Measles Transmission
The measles virus has never been more highly contagious. It can stay suspended in the air for hours after an infected person has vacated the premises. According to the Alberta government, over 90 percent of individuals who are not immune and are exposed to the virus will become infected. This level of transmission makes the potential for larger outbreaks likely.
Colijn cautions that spreaders, like summer festivals and the Calgary Stampede, may add fuel to the fire. Transportation Secretary Nicole Nason added, “As we get into the next several weeks people will be starting summer vacations. We will see festivals … If that doesn’t happen, we will likely start to see community transmission spread outside of the south zone.”
“As people are out at mass gathering events and as Stampede comes and as all these different events happen, we’re going to have more and more spread.” – Caroline Colijn
Health authorities fear that Alberta has it within them to be the state that introducers measles into places that have eliminated it. Colijn noted that summer travel patterns could facilitate this spread: “We may see a broader geographic spread because of summer travel from Alberta more than to Alberta. That’s very hard to predict.”
The Path Forward
Dr. Sam Wong emphasizes the importance of protecting unvaccinated populations:
“I would expect it will continue to transmit and find pathways through our population to reach people who are not protected.”
Alberta’s medical community is bracing for what could be the first large summer wave of measles cases in history. Health officials and the public have to work together now more than ever. The conjuncture of increasing case counts and high-risk mass gatherings on the horizon are a perfect storm for transmission.
