Mexican officials have repeatedly underscored how crucial Canada’s presence within the Canada-United States-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA) has been. They got into this in detail during recent negotiations on the future of the trade bloc. Luis Rosendo Gutierrez Romano, Mexico’s vice-minister of trade, said the trilateral relationship is mutually beneficial for all three nations. His comments come just as the United States and Mexico appear set to proceed. They are ready to move ahead with or without Canada.
Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative, remembered that the original agreement was written to ensure that Canada could be folded in. “Canada was welcome to join if it wanted,” he stated, underscoring the willingness of the United States and Mexico to collaborate while highlighting their readiness to pursue bilateral agreements should Canada choose not to participate.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signaled interest in negotiating new, separate, bilateral trade pacts with America’s nearest neighbors. This move would only increase unpredictability to an already precarious balance within CUSMA. This puzzlement comes as anxiety grows because that required CUSMA review is due this year. It provides an opportunity for all stakeholders to assess how well the agreement is working and where it should go in the future.
Unfortunately, the current administration has sowed doubt about CUSMA’s durability. President Donald Trump has questioned the agreement’s continued relevance and/or usefulness, arguing that it had achieved its aims. In fact, he has gone so far as to muse about the US withdrawing from it altogether. Once a signal of non-renewal or non-withdrawal is received, the signal will set off an annual review process. This process would unnecessarily prolong negotiations by up to a decade.
Gutierrez Romano found good reason for optimism regarding CUSMA’s fate. “We see it optimistically, that we will reach July 1 with a very strong, trilateral relationship and with a stronger agreement in terms of trade, but improvements … in procedures to do a lot more efficiently,” he noted.
Between May 7 and May 9, that trade mission from the country of Mexico will be hitting Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto. This mission comes on the heels of a Canadian trade mission to Mexico last month, headed by Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc. These initiatives reflect concerted efforts to consolidate trade relationships as tensions escalate and uncertainty takes hold with respect to CUSMA.
