In 2025, China recorded its lowest birth rate on record, marking a significant demographic milestone that raises concerns for the future. The country’s overall population declined for the fourth straight year. This rapid fertility decline makes Beijing’s task of reversing the course of several decades of harsh, state-imposed birth control policies all the more difficult. With just 7.92 million babies born compared to 11.31 million deaths, China’s net overall population dropped by 3.39 million.
Additionally, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria recorded its lowest birth rate ever of only 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025. This overall decline in births presents some major problems for the country’s demographic balance. It further undermines fiscal plans as the impacts of an aging society are fully felt. Demographers estimate that by 2100, one in two Chinese will be over 60. As of 2025, these current numbers have already pushed this age group up to 323 million people — 23% of the entire population.
Economic Stability Amid Challenges
Despite these demographic concerns, China’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025, achieving a growth rate of 5%, in line with the government’s annual target. This unexpected performance was thanks to booming exports which cancelled out some of the economic headwinds. The economy started to cool off towards the end of the year. After clocking in a hefty 7.9% growth rate in the third quarter, growth fell to 4.5% in the fourth quarter.
Kang, a prominent economist, noted, “In 2025, China’s economy withstood pressure and maintained steady progress, achieving new results in high-quality development.” Investment in critical sectors like housing, manufacturing and infrastructure decreased at a historic rate of 3.8%. This contraction indicates that despite seemingly robust economic growth figures overall, serious underlying problems could endanger our long-term economic stability.
Retail sales were equally sobering, which increased just 0.9% in Dec 2025. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, authorities delayed a possible interference with a stimulus package until after the end of the fiscal year. They were sure of meeting the 5% growth ceiling, buoyed by vigorous export growth.
Implications of an Aging Population
This demographic shift towards an increasingly aged population poses tremendous threats to China’s future economic development. As it is, people aged 60 and older may comprise almost half of the population by the century’s end. Policymakers need to get on the ball now to come up with plans that account for this big demographic change. The implications are profound, threatening our labor markets, healthcare systems, and social support networks.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of “population security” and the “development of a high-quality population” in addressing these demographic challenges. The government may need to consider policy adjustments to encourage higher birth rates and support families as they navigate these changing circumstances.
China is facing a declining birthrate, and an increasingly aging population. How the government responds will be key to determining the future economic prospects of the country and maintaining social peace. Engaging with these demographic changes calls for a collaborative approach that harmonizes the demands of economic development with the necessities of community wellbeing.
Future Economic Forecasts
The OECD expects an unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. These projections are released against the backdrop of continuing global economic uncertainties and headwinds created by the current state of trade relations, most notably with the United States.
The Economist Intelligence Unit recently emphasized that robust investments in artificial intelligence and technology will lead the way to growth. Further opportunities to expand lie within the strong activities of financial markets. If we ignore the demographic time bomb we still face, it will be harder and harder to achieve long-term economic prosperity.
