In an extraordinary accomplishment, the world today has enjoyed the longest nuclear test-free stretch in history. That’s great news and this is a wonderful milestone, but it’s still a very unstable condition. North Korea carried out its most recent official nuclear test on September 3, 2017. That historic event triggered an eight-year freeze that’s lasted up till today. The postponement of the new test underscores the complicated nature of international relations. It represents the urgent security threats and the long-term work towards preventing nuclear proliferation. Humanitarian groups and analysts are raising alarms about the fragile truce. They caution that with increasing geopolitical tensions and a potential return to nuclear testing by large powers — notably the U.S. and Russia — those gains are at risk.
The United States conducted its last nuclear test on September 23, 1992. At the same time, Russia—which at that time had yet to be split off from the Soviet Union—executed its last explosion in 1990. In the intervening years, the status of nuclear testing has been defined by a patchwork of treaties and one-sided decisions. Despite the current lull, the threat of renewed tests looms large as nations grapple with their security postures in an increasingly unstable world.
Historical Context of Nuclear Testing
The Trinity test was the first of these, codenamed “Trinity,” which took place in July 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico. Since then, eight countries have carried out a mind-blowing 2,055 nuclear tests. The United States leads this alarming statistic with 1,030 tests, followed by Russia (715), France (210), China (45), and the United Kingdom (45). North Korea has conducted six tests, North Korea three, and Pakistan two.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which opened for signature in the late 1990s, still has not come into force. It was never fully realized. This treaty would have banned all nuclear explosions, but its entry into force still sits stalled by a range of geopolitical factors. Failure to enact strong legal obligations allows states to maintain or even build upon their nuclear stockpiles. Somehow, this situation exists without meaningful international scrutiny.
Experts point to the ongoing moratorium on nuclear testing as an opportunity to pursue diplomatic engagement. They caution that this emerging landscape is fraught with peril. Dylan Spaulding emphasizes this precarious situation:
“As of today, the world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test. From now on, every day without a nuclear explosion will set a new record.” – Dylan Spaulding
The Current Landscape of Nuclear Weapons
The global stockpile of nuclear weapons is double dangerous. Russia continues to have the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with more than 4,300 nuclear warheads. The United States is not far behind, with around 3,700 nuclear weapons still in its stockpile. The vast magnitude of these arsenals further highlights the threat of devastating consequences if Russia-Ukraine tensions worsen or miscalculations happen.
Some experts counter that Russia and the US each have enough nuclear forces. Furthermore, they could do this not just once, but several times of each others’ destruction. Jennifer Knox highlights the dangers of increasing these stockpiles:
“Both Russia and the United States already have more than enough nuclear weapons to devastate each other many times over. Adding more to the mix increases the chances of an accident and the consequences of miscalculation or escalation.” – Jennifer Knox
Renewed testing would trigger an extremely dangerous arms race among the world’s global powers. Nations will always respond to threats, real or imagined, posed by other countries, further raising tensions. Knox warns that both countries could rapidly enhance their nuclear capabilities:
“Within weeks, the United States could field another 480 nuclear weapons at bomber bases. Within months, it could load almost 1,000 additional nuclear warheads onto submarines.” – Jennifer Knox
The Risks of Renewed Testing
As countries navigate their security concerns amidst heightened tensions, the prospect of reopening the door to nuclear testing poses significant hazards. With a potentially dangerous and destabilizing race among states to deploy and test, experts warn against unfettered testing in the current volatile global landscape.
Many of these policymakers think that in order to maintain deterrence, we need to conduct nuclear tests. Yet, this plan might poorly beget suspicion and hostility among alien powers. With every new weapon they test or deploy, the chances of miscalculation or an accident grow exponentially.
“Unrestrained tests lead to competition, instability, and a degree of uncertainty that can scarcely be afforded on top of our existing global precarity.” – Dylan Spaulding
While some policymakers may view nuclear tests as necessary measures for deterrence, this approach can inadvertently foster mistrust and insecurity among rival nations. The potential for miscalculations or accidents increases dramatically with each additional weapon tested or deployed.
