On Friday, the world took an extraordinary step towards nuclear disarmament. What we’re now enjoying is the longest period of time without nuclear testing since the development of atomic weapons. Today is eight years, four months, and eleven days since North Korea’s last nuclear test. That test was on September 3, 2017. This rare period of calm raises expectations for international stability. More importantly, it highlights the continuing tenuousness and fragility of international relations, as countries continue to maintain and expand gigantic nuclear stockpiles.
The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since September 23, 1992. The last four tests were nuclear explosions, bringing the country’s total number of nuclear tests to 1,030. Russia, then still the Soviet Union, was a close second with 715 tests, the most recent in 1990. Other nations such as France, China, and the United Kingdom have conducted fewer tests: 210, 45, and 45 respectively. North Korea is the outlier with six tests – the total number of tests it’s conducted since 2006. On top of that, India and Pakistan have each carried out three and two tests, respectively. In 1945, the very first nuclear explosion – code named ‘Trinity’ – was detonated at Alamogordo, New Mexico. This pioneering treaty was the catalyst for 2,055 sequential explosions of nuclear fission by eight countries.
Prolonged Inactivity and Its Implications
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has opened for signature in the late 1990s. It has been a powerful driver in producing this decade of non-movement. While it has not yet entered into force due to not yet being ratified by all signatories, it is a symbol of the world’s commitment to ending nuclear testing. Today, experts warn that this calm might be precarious.
Dylan Spaulding, a prominent analyst on nuclear issues, remarked on the current situation:
“As of today, the world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test … From now on, every day without a nuclear explosion will set a new record.”
Spaulding explained that reopening “this Pandora’s box is not only unnecessary, it is dangerous,” highlighting the harm that can come from unrestricted testing.
The Stakes in Global Politics
Against this backdrop of failed tests, the geopolitical situation continues to be incredibly tense. The New Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (START) limits the number of nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia can deploy to 1,550 each. In fact, Russia does have the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, at more than 4,300 nuclear weapons.
Additionally, experts caution that further testing not only wouldn’t achieve strategic goals, but would intensify rivalries on the international stage. Jennifer Knox explained the dire consequences of such actions:
“Within weeks, the United States could field another 480 nuclear weapons at bomber bases. Within months, it could load almost 1,000 additional nuclear warheads onto submarines. And within years, it could load an additional 400 nuclear warheads onto land-based missiles. Russia could do the same.”
Such an escalation would only add to political divisions, and raise the likelihood of dangerous, even catastrophic, miscalculations.
Future Prospects for Disarmament
Though the testing moratorium has created a welcome present calm in testing, disarmament advocates are guardedly optimistic. The extended intermission provides an unprecedented opportunity for conversation and perhaps even new accords to lessen nuclear stockpiles worldwide even more. The danger that countries might come to see their nuclear capabilities as vital to deterrent purpose is a serious impediment.
The future of global nuclear testing and disarmament depends on strong diplomatic engagement and international solidarity.
“Unrestrained tests lead to competition, instability, and a degree of uncertainty that can scarcely be afforded on top of our existing global precarity.”
The future of nuclear testing and disarmament hinges on diplomatic efforts and international cooperation.
