Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces mounting pressures from various fronts as he navigates the complexities of conducting elections amidst ongoing conflict. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Zelensky’s approval ratings peaked and plummeted in turn. Unlike his first wave of support, these have been much more stable. He is at once contending with foreign and domestic expectations. To meet some of these challenges, he is negotiating to hold elections within 60-90 days, but only if he can obtain the needed security guarantees first.
When comic actor Volodymyr Zelensky scored an improbable landslide victory in April 2019, he ushered in the country’s most profound political transformation in decades. Immediately after, in a show of force that left few doubting his willingness to exert authority, he disbanded parliament. Yet, the reality could not be more different, as his administration is funneling efforts into shaky territory with challenges like never before—a result of the continued war. Later, with martial law declared, Zelensky has made the decision to extend it in 90-day increments, deepening the bind even further.
Pressure from International Actors
As Zelensky weighs whether he can even hold elections, he is under increased pressure from none other than former U.S. president Donald Trump. In addition to these exhortations, Trump has publicly called on Zelensky to provide concessions. He implies that Zelensky is exploiting the conflict to postpone the electoral contest. This demand is made even as Trump has called for a similar resolution to the war that breaks out every several years.
In light of this, Zelensky has been adamant that security guarantees are needed to allow elections to be held. He called for the United States and its European allies to intervene. Their backing is key to fostering a safe space for people to cast their ballots.
“I am asking, and I am now declaring this openly, the United States of America to help me, together with our European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections.” – Volodymyr Zelensky
This technical ask ranked the importance of the international relations and domestic political stability stakes intertwined with Ukraine’s internal diaspora politics. In the absence of a strong security and resiliency framework, the future of our elections will not be guaranteed.
Security Concerns and Electoral Legitimacy
Zelensky’s administration is well aware of the grave security risks that come with the concept of conducting elections in the midst of a war. Almost one million Ukrainians have volunteered to serve in their military, with hundreds of thousands serving on the front lines. This renders especially traditional voting methods unfeasible.
Zelensky’s words reflected the absurdity of voting under missile bombardments, posing basic questions to logistical flaws.
“How can this be done under missile attacks on our military? The question is, how will they vote?” – Volodymyr Zelensky
The import of these technical challenges goes beyond logistics. They threaten the very legitimacy of the state. International and domestic experts have cautioned that holding elections in an insecure manner would jeopardize Ukraine’s reputation at home and abroad.
“It is about the reputation and legitimacy of the Ukrainian state as it is. Without legitimacy, this state will not survive, because Russia will destroy our reputation, and then we will be a failed state.” – Olha Aivazovska
Legal and Practical Implications of Elections During Martial Law
The climate of legal uncertainty around elections amidst a state of such exceptional measures only complicates Zelensky’s ambitious plans further. Under existing election laws, elections are not permitted when martial law is declared. Legal experts such as Serhiy Dubovyk underscore the increasing difficulty to comply with international standards in such situations. The loopholes are making it harder and harder to comply.
“We even have it stipulated that during martial law, which has been declared in our country, elections are not held.” – Serhiy Dubovyk
Additionally, Dubovyk noted that it is “impossible to fully guarantee compliance with all international standards,” further complicating the feasibility of elections during this turbulent period.
The administration must consider whether to seek legal changes that would allow for elections despite martial law or to wait until peace is restored and conditions are deemed safe for voting.
Looking Ahead
Though these obstacles seem insurmountable at times, President Zelensky is determined to continue holding elections when it is safe to do so. He’s expected to propose amendments to a peace plan favored by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. He is presenting these negotiations as an integral element of his overall plan to win the peace.
Russia isn’t the only one paying attention Zelensky’s term ends in 2024. In order to govern effectively, he needs to bring a degree of normalcy back to Ukraine. The restoration is partly about restoring the trust of Americans. These people were the first to cheer him on during the early days of the invasion, when his approval ratings went up to 90%.
