Tempers are flaring in a crisis-wracked Stormont. Discussions over how much money should go to the Department of Education have grown deeply fraught. Paul Givan, the Minister of Education, has recently sent a very threatening letter to John O’Dowd. His main point was that absent supplemental funding, the Department of Education will surely exceed its budget this fiscal year. This juxtaposition makes for a curious warning as pressure builds on all fronts. The Department of Health is currently looking down the barrel of a £100 million overspend.
In a response sent November 19, Givan rebutted O’Dowd’s claims regarding funding pressures. Givan’s comments reveal a growing discontent with the lack of money to back it up. He makes the case that this help is desperately needed to ensure core services in our schools.
John O’Dowd blamed most of the forecast overspend on pay pressures for teachers that haven’t yet been funded, which are expected in 2025/26. At the same time, he talked Givan out of a much more dangerous Department of Education overspending. Even a slight overspend would have devastating repercussions for the department and for other public services. As he stated, such overspending “directly negatively impacts front-line services in the future for your own department and other departments, and this will adversely impact on the people of the north next year and in years to come.”
O’Dowd’s big surprise has been the recent injection of £370 million into Stormont. This abrupt move adds additional, exponential complexity to an already complicated fiscal landscape for the next three years. Only £18.8 million of this sum is usable during the rest of this year. It’s hard to think of any other time that funding discussions have dominated the agenda this way during a monitoring round. Executive ministers will continue to argue about where best to spend any money while avoiding the elephant in the room – ongoing public sector pay demands.
Paul Givan emphasized that accessing significant levels of additional funding through in-year monitoring rounds has been essential for maintaining the Northern Ireland block grant within budget constraints. He stated, “For many years access to significant levels of additional funding via in-year monitoring rounds have been key to the Northern Ireland block grant operating within budget.” He emphasized that even if those cuts were feasible, they would obliterate the education system this year.
Naomi Long had a lot to overcome. She reached out to her executive peers for any support they could muster to avert further increases. These next negotiations will be very important. Ministers are understood to be looking for O’Dowd to present concrete proposals for a multi-year budget to the executive before Christmas.
John Nesbitt, a member of the executive, acknowledged that any overspend at the year’s end will be deducted from next year’s opening budget for the Department of Education. This new reality creates even greater urgency around the current negotiations and conversations about where funding should be allocated.
Givan and O’Dowd vigorously discuss and debate issues. Their aim is to make real change possible that will allow the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) to start conversations on a common offer. They aim to prioritize funding from next year’s budget (2026/27) to avert escalating costs and ensure public safety services are maintained.
While tensions are rising and conversation flows, John O’Dowd is careful to speculate about the long term effects of temporary funding agreements. He stated, “being aware of the challenges and having the capacity to materially address them are two entirely separate matters,” highlighting the difficulties faced by departments as they navigate fiscal constraints.
