Hungary has received a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian energy. This decision followed a high-profile meeting between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. Hungary’s use of Russian oil and gas is more extreme than that of any other country in the European Union. To address this predicament, Hungary is urgently exploring alternatives to lessen its reliance as the Ukraine war and mounting geopolitical pressures continue.
In the midst of these talks, Trump called Orbán a “great leader”—to his face—of a “great country.” He recognized the unique challenges that Hungary experiences due to its landlocked geography. He especially emphasized the challenges Hungary has in weaning off Russian fossil fuels. He explained, “It’s a wonderful country; it’s a huge country, but they lack access to sea. They don’t have the ports. And so they have a difficult problem.”
Ever since the war in Ukraine started, Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy has only increased. The increases in the nation’s dependence on Russian crude oil are huge—from 61% right before the invasion to a shocking 86% by 2024. Similarly, in that year Russia is projected to make up 92% of Hungary’s crude oil imports. As a result, Hungary and Slovakia are now the only EU member states still getting oil from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline. In reality, Slovakia itself is almost 100% dependent on Russian crude oil.
It poses a danger to EU political and public opinion solidarity on energy security and their joint push to phase out imports of Russian oil. Analysts have noted that recent exemptions granted to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic indicate a recognition of their unique circumstances. The Adria pipeline in Croatia could be a hopeful alternative. It has the potential to fulfill the joint electricity needs of Hungary and Slovakia.
As Orbán initially warned Trump, an end to Hungary’s Russian energy imports would devastate the country’s economy. This message underscores the high stakes even for his administration. The U.S. decision to refrain from penalizing Hungary for its ongoing purchases of Russian energy for an additional year reflects an understanding of these economic pressures.
Given these changes, Orbán was hopeful that the time is ripe again for closer U.S.-Hungarian relations. He stated, “Now we are (in) quite a good position to open up a new chapter – let’s say a golden age – between the United States and Hungary.” This sentiment emphasizes an interest in deepening bilateral relations, even as the region grapples with an energy transition.
While Hungary’s exemption offers temporary relief, analysts caution that Trump’s leniency on sanctions could embolden other nations to pursue similar paths in circumventing U.S. restrictions on Russian oil exports. National governments territories countries LG nations are still dealing with different energy demands from global sanctions. The impact on EU unity and collective action against Russia will be clear as these nations decide.
