The Liberal government is facing unprecedented challenges as it heads into the critical vote on its third no doubt electoral cycle accelerating federal budget. Currently, the party finds itself just a few votes short of the necessary support to pass the budget independently in the House of Commons. To secure approval, the Liberals must either garner at least two additional votes or encourage several opposition Members of Parliament (MPs) to abstain from voting.
The political landscape has become more volatile as rumors swirl that the legislature could be called back for a special fall election. How the Liberals choose to walk this delicate tightrope may be the key to keeping them in government, or flushing them out of office. Recent numbers come amidst a big fundraising blitz from the Conservative Party and their new leader Pierre Poilievre. We see that they’ve overtaken the Liberals in fundraising, raising $4.2 million during the third quarter to the Liberals’ $2.9 million.
Yet these fundraising statistics point to a bigger trend that has been impacting all major political parties. Pity the Conservative Party, which could only manage 53,725 donations in the third quarter. This is a major drop off from the 148,676 donations she collected in Q1 of this year. The Liberal Party was coming off a loss in contributors. In their latest quarter, they reported just 77,064 donors, down sharply from 156,489 donors earlier this year.
The Bloc Québécois was in dire straits, financially. In the third quarter, they brought in about $100,000 from almost a thousand donors. This is down by nearly half ($356,000) raised during the same period last year.
As fundraising efforts continue to falter, Ottawa’s political climate has grown increasingly toxic, marked by a growing sense of apprehension. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois continues to exercise pressure on the Liberal government to approve tens of billions in new spending. The Liberals respond that this request would put an unreasonable burden on taxpayers. In that vein, the Conservatives have been hustling for $money$ off of this developing story.
“If Mark Carney’s costly Liberal budget doesn’t pass, the government will collapse, sending Canadians right back to the polls. We don’t know if a costly Liberal election is going to be called, but I can guarantee, we will be ready.” – Daniel Taller
Fortunately, liberal officials are meeting these challenges with boldness and creativity. They’ve been very proactive in communicating with every opposition party to build support for the budget approval. Steven MacKinnon stated, “We are working with all the opposition parties. Yes, we obviously want this budget to pass and avoid a Christmas election.”
Even with these growing efforts, political observers are doubtful the government will be able to move quickly or effectively through this new rocky landscape. Alexis Deschênes commented on the precarious situation: “They’re threatening to call an election if the budget isn’t passed as is. But they’re in a minority. All they have to do to get their budget passed is make a deal with the Bloc, the Conservatives, the NDP — anyone.”
The Conservative Party’s success in raising campaign dollars has allowed them to effectively capitalize on the current uncertainty to their benefit. Their ability to fundraise has been dealt a blow. Yet they are down immensely from the $28 million they raised in the first three months of 2023 to $3 million in Q4.
