The Canadian federal budget is scheduled for release on November 4, as the Liberal government navigates a tricky political landscape. The Liberals are now on a minority government footing. Yet, they squeak by just short of the votes needed for their fiscal plan to pass independently in the House of Commons. They must secure support from opposition parties or induce some opposition MPs to abstain from the vote to avoid facing a potential government collapse.
The Liberal party is currently in possession of 169 seats as opposed to the combined opposition’s 174 seats. The Conservative Party, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, forms the Official Opposition with 144 seats. The Bloc Québécois is a close third with 22 seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) has seven, and the Green Party has one. How the opposition behaves will be critical in determining the eventual outcome of the budget moving forward. This budget is seen by many as a confidence budget.
Poilievre has been repeatedly clear that he is looking for an “affordable budget,” cautioning against any inflationary spending. He stated, “If they’re going to increase the cost of living for Canadians again, with more inflationary spending, then Canadians will judge them accordingly.” He stressed that it would be in the end up to the government to persuade and win support from opposition.
National Defence Minister David McGuinty is still holding out hope that the budget will be approved. He said he was optimistic his party would be able to strike deals and line up the required votes. “I have every confidence that we will pass the budget,” he said. He assured the government’s intention to show in their negotiations reflections of priorities from across the Member of Parliament (M.P) spectrum.
This budget sharply addresses short-term financial challenges. Finally, it’s a critical step toward fulfilling Canada’s promise to NATO, to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. McGuinty noted, “I think what we’ll be doing in the budget is laying track to meet the 5 per cent target by 2035,” highlighting the government’s focus on defence issues.
Last week, the NDP’s Don Davies raised the alarm on possible austerity in next week’s budget. Advanced PM He also signalled that his party is “ alarmed ” by the prospect of cuts to life-saving services. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has already signalled his party will not support the budget. This position only creates more headaches for the Liberals already as they try to get it passed.
In comment on the challenges posed by a minority government, Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon noted that “as negotiation goes on…He noted, “We’re continuing to do the hard work that we know a minority government imposes on us.” He further panned Poilievre’s approach, arguing that he could be doing so out of self-interest—with an eye to scaring the government into an early election.
The political climate around that budget is still very tense. A recent emergency fundraising email from the Conservative Party warned supporters that this election is “looming” and set to strike at any moment. The email alleged that the Liberals have already conceded they don’t have support to pass their budget. Perhaps, most importantly of all, they’re simply refusing to change.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is getting ready to deliver his first federal budget. All eyes will be looking to see how much the Liberals are able to negotiate with opposition parties to secure their fiscal plan’s approval. McGuinty assured that they are working diligently towards this goal, stating, “We will earn the respect and the support in the House. It’s a question of negotiations.”
