Just a few weeks ago, Statistics Canada told Canadians to expect a delay in the publication of its monthly international trade results. Today’s decision follows the continued U.S. government shutdown. The agency made clear that it can’t move forward with the reporting until the problem is fixed. This notable development can have wider effects on economic indicators that are sensitive to timely trade data.
The shutdown exacerbates unprecedented operational challenges across all levels of government. This means that Statistics Canada has been cut off from some of the vital information needed for its trade statistics. In a letter to MTA, the agency expressed the potential for the disruption to create long-term delays. If so, they are going to look for other ways to deal with the problem.
That said, the monthly trade figures are necessary. They have a large impact on the most important near-term calculation of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) by expenditure. Analysts across government and the private sector routinely use these figures to contextualize and inform narratives of economic performance and trends. The lack of timely trade data reporting could prevent a full picture of Canada’s economic health from emerging.
The balance of international payments shows the country’s overall financial transactions with the rest of the world. The flip side is that it is deeply dependent on assumptions made in forfaits of the past month’s trade figures. This heavy reliance only further illustrates the need for accurate and timely reporting from Statistics Canada for all stakeholders from all sectors to use.
As the shutdown continues, worries are growing about the effect it may have on economic analysis and policy-making. A broad array of stakeholders are watching very closely. They hope to find out just how long of a delay is expected and what steps Statistics Canada will take to avoid lasting impacts.
