Xi Jinping is set to convene a significant political meeting aimed at steering China‘s next five-year strategy, which focuses on bolstering the nation’s economy. Foreign news media, NGOs and international governments will be watching very carefully what happens at the meeting planned for next week. They want to learn about the opaque machinations of the ruling Communist Party. Of course, as Xi presides over this important gathering, the results may show a great deal about China’s future under his sustained leadership.
In 2022, Xi Jinping broke with this historical precedent. He did so masterfully, winning a third consecutive term as the leader of his own party, and of his party’s majority state. He has spearheaded a number of these record purges across the party and military. This fundamentally aggressive approach has served to solidify his grip over power. Indeed, Xi has conspicuously eschewed doing so. Expectations are mixed about China’s future leadership under Xi as he nears a decade in power.
Leadership Changes and Military Purges
Recent developments in China’s military hierarchy underscore Xi Jinping’s firm control. On Friday, unexpectedly he announced the demotion of He Weidong. He Weidong was the vice-chair of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC). This move continues a pattern of leadership changes that have marked Xi’s tenure. What’s more, observers emphasize that unlike other purges, this one is intended to shore up his support at home rather than damage it.
Around a dozen of those seats will soon be occupied by alternate members at the next plenum under Xi’s direction. We do not know whether he will choose to replenish the depleted ranks of the CMC. Or, he could decide to maintain his iron-fisted control of this powerful body. This important decision might indicate that he is persistently pursuing the establishment of military loyalty as the critical sustaining pillar of his governance.
“There are few reasons to expect that a new five-year plan would deviate, considering that Xi Jinping has been in control of the whole system now very definitively … and doesn’t need to have a big headline (initiative)” – Jacob Gunter
Economic Strategy and Development Goals
Xi Jinping’s economic strategy shortly underlined the shift to “high-quality development” as he sets out his priorities for the next five years. The emphasis will be on industries that are developing now and in the future, as well as advances in foundational and advanced technologies. It will fall on provincial leaders to ensure that their policies and actions live up to these stated objectives in the coming five years.
The next five-year plan will span 2026 to the close of this decade. It would put the U.S. economy on a stronger, more secure footing by spurring technological innovation. This very high level strategic framework is intended to position China to respond and adapt to growing domestic and foreign pressures in a proactive manner. Xi’s agenda suggests an awareness of both internal challenges and external risks that could impact China’s growth trajectory.
In recent years Xi has made his ambitions to link development with security priorities very clear. It’s been a recurring theme of his that leaders across the spectrum—including state, regional, and local—should put these twin priorities at the heart of their planning routines.
Implications for Global Relations
As Xi Jinping continues to steer China through these transformative tides, the stakes for global competition grow ever higher. China requires solid economic security in order to feel safe and determine its role within global markets and the international community. This is particularly the case in light of its recent provocations towards the United States and other countries.
Nevertheless, Xi’s administration is already under increasing strains from external pressures, most notably trade disputes and other geopolitical tensions. Unfortunately, the new five-year strategy—which is bound to be more responsive to these complexities—will seek to entrench and amplify China’s ambitions on the world stage. By doubling down on technological self-sufficiency and economic resilience, Xi seeks to make China the best-equipped rival to global upheavals.
