As the nation prepares for what seems like an inevitable government shutdown,… Even the new Republican Speaker Mike Johnson is sounding the alarm, declaring this standoff could become the longest in American history. The current standstill is all about health care policy. Most notably, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies will begin to phase down at year’s end, further raising urgency. This whole mess looks a lot like the 2013 Obama government shutdown. At that time, Republicans were mostly unified against repealing the ACA, and the shutdown lasted only 16 days.
The Trump administration is exercising considerable authority to dismiss federal workers, prompting complaints from within the GOP and legal challenges from employee unions. As Vice President JD Vance recently cautioned, deeply painful cuts are looming. In the courts, at the same time, unions are battling to preserve and expand workers’ rights through litigation. Johnson promises that his conference is willing to negotiate on good changes to health care. He stubbornly insists that he will not negotiate with Democrats until they stop their calls for subsidy extensions.
“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history.” – Mike Johnson
In a statement, Johnson said he was disappointed that the Democrats would not budge on their demand to negotiate on healthcare. He insisted that any debate over the subsidies should happen only after the federal government reopens. The stakes are enormous for potentially thousands of federal employees. Tens of thousands, including Congressional aides on pay periods of 1 month or less, fear missing their next payday.
The next open enrollment period begins on November 1. This presents additional obstacles for Americans who base their health insurance on federal assistance from the ACA exchanges. Millions would have to face skyrocketing premiums if the subsidies are not renewed. Johnson reflected on the difficulties of repealing Obamacare, stating, “Can we completely repeal and replace Obamacare? Many of us are skeptical about that now because the roots are so deep.”
This shutdown has the same scent of sulfur as Trump’s initial attempts to destroy the ACA in 2017. At the time, he enjoyed a unified Republican majority in both Congressional chambers. Previous to this latest one, the record longest federal shutdown happened during the Trump administration in early 2019. Yet when Trump insisted on funding for a U.S.-Mexico border wall, the impasse stretched a historic 35 days.
Senators still in a hold pattern dog and cat still They aren’t able to reach agreement on basic health care priorities, and many Americans are justifiably worried about the implications of this stalemate. Democrats are still pushing renewal extensions, and Republicans are still claiming there’s a chance of doing something afterward.
In light of these developments, Johnson acknowledged the importance of ensuring military personnel receive their paychecks during this tumultuous period. He specifically thanked the former President Trump for helping ensure payments were made on time to the men and women who now serve in uniform.
“Some of the funds in DoD’s direct appropriation under the 2025 reconciliation act could be used to pay active-duty personnel during a shutdown, thus reducing the number of excepted workers who would receive delayed compensation.” – Congressional Budget Office
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has indicated that the administration might tap into mandatory funding sources provided in the 2025 reconciliation act to sustain activities at various agencies during a shutdown. These potential measures underscore the opaque and contradictory nature of doing the government’s business while fighting in a fiscal civil war.
It isn’t just advocates pushing for this change either. Pressure is swirling from both sides of the aisle. How legislators will tread this treacherous battlefield will be a sight to see. We need to address these problems deep at this time. The subsidies are set to expire this week, and we are all in need of a less dysfunctional government. Johnson’s comments bring attention to a growing concern of many Republicans. They are much more worried about the political blowback and the tangible impact on Americans who can’t get affordable health insurance.
