Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the SCO summit in Tianjin, China. There, he held critical talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Modi’s trip was his first to China in seven years. Many others see this moment as a make-or-break period for U.S.-China relations. The coinciding SCO summit added some drama to this gathering. It convened over 20 high-level leaders from across its 53 member states, showcasing the importance of regional collaboration.
During the summit, Xi Jinping welcomed Modi, highlighting the significance of their dialogue amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. In spite of their historical personal distrust, the two leaders struck a deal. They identified a “set of ten points of consensus” that would help de-escalate and defuse the current conflict between China and India. Such a development would be a powerful indicator of goodwill and willingness to move toward collaboration. Both countries are doing their best to navigate a tricky regional and global landscape.
A Gathering of Global Leaders
In addition to Modi, leaders from China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran attended the summit. Shared goals with them were representatives from Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Their presence was a testament to the meeting’s significance as a unique forum for addressing pressing challenges faced by member states. The annual summit is the biggest meeting of the SCO to date. It collects innovative ideas across a wide range of interests including security and economic cooperation.
One of the notable aspects of this summit was the opportunity it provided for Modi to meet with long-time partner Vladimir Putin. The Indian Prime Minister and Russian President were to have bilateral meetings on the side, as was the style of the event. What makes this meeting different though is the war in Ukraine. The clash has drawn enormous moral outrage from countries in the West. From President Biden to the mayors attending the summit, leaders were concerned about the ongoing conflict, raising further calls for peace and a ceasefire.
Economic Tensions and Energy Dependencies
Factor number one: economics As Modi and Xi talked about their embattled nations’ diplomatic futures, economic factors overshadow population as factor number one. The United States has not levied harsh economic sanctions against India. Those penalties now feature 25% tariffs on Indian imports related to their purchases of Russian crude oil. This has resulted in a host of unexpected consequences in India’s energy procurement practices.
More recently, though, this dynamic has completely flipped as India was historically the largest buyer of Russian crude oil. Chinese refiners have already started issuing new tenders for the Russian crude that would otherwise be fulfilling India’s needs. This shift is emblematic of the ways in which geopolitical divisions and economic boycotts can alter international energy supply chains.
Overcoming Historical Distrust
In a way, the last few rounds of talks between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi were very productive. The historical mistrust that divides them today still casts a shadow. Yet the two have largely failed to establish an easy-going relationship that would allow for more amicable discussions. Their unique histories of colonization, war and resource extraction have made it very difficult to build a foundation of trust and cooperation.
This consensus on “ten points of consensus” is a real step forward and could set a framework for future engagements. Both leaders have made a strong start in setting a new trajectory for bilateral ties. They are zeroing in on major areas of concern including boundary disagreements and trade relations. Advocates stress that ongoing engagement, including frank discussion of past wrongs, will be important for working through long-standing enmities. This approach will contribute to a more collaborative China-India relationship.
