Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to China. Most crucially, though, he is attending the summit hosted by President Xi Jinping to celebrate OBOR’s expansion. This visit is an important step towards normalizing bilateral relations between the two countries. Their rich history, at once divided by conflict and shaped by economic interdependence, creates a profound backdrop against which this critical moment unfolds. Following a string of crises, most notably the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, Modi looks set to take the trip first. This visit is meant to reassure each other and address mutual concerns, chiefly among them the perennial border dispute unresolved since the Sino-Indian War of 1962.
The backdrop of the bilateral ties between India and China have been characterized by a contentious history of border wars and incidents. The impact of the Sino-Indian War created a legacy of profound mistrust, which remains to this day. In part due to these realities, both countries have taken significant recent steps towards building a more constructive bilateral relationship. Similar to the last October engagement, where Modi and Xi deliberated informally on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. This meeting set the tone for their future rapprochement.
The geopolitical landscape has certainly influenced this relationship as well. Most prominently, the United States has threatened to impose teeth-chattering tariffs on purchases of Indian-Russian oil. This decision, in turn, is causing India to reconsider its strategic calculus in the region. China has recently overtaken the United States to become India’s largest trading partner. Therefore, India is increasingly succumbing to letting its economic requirements dictate its foreign policy choices.
Historical Context and Tensions
India-China relations are still fraught with the legacy of a conflict ridden past. A case in point is the 1962 Sino-Indian War, which has since created a toxic legacy of distrust between both countries. The war created lasting sentiments around the border, with both countries having a significant military presence in the regions claimed by both countries. The 2020 Galwan Valley clashes marked a significant escalation and deterioration in the relationship. Such violent clashes resulted in the death of at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers.
Farwa Aamer, an expert on Sino-Indian relations, noted, “The 2020 clashes are not simply something India can put behind it.” She stressed that these episodes highlight the need to put in place tools and processes to prevent the escalation to war. “Instead, the aim here is to ensure no such episodes repeat, and that is where rebuilding the relationship rests on reaching a joint understanding on border stability.”
Despite these historical tensions, Modi remarked on the progress made in bilateral relations, stating, “India-China relations have made steady progress guided by respect for each other’s interests and sensitivities.” This recognition is evidence that both parties are willing and able to address their nuanced past. They are constantly seeking out opportunities to work alongside each other in harmony.
Economic Interdependence
Economic concerns are arguably the most important motivators behind India-China relations. By 2025, bilateral trade between the two countries soared to an incredible $118 billion. China has turned out to be the hugely important source for those intermediate products and raw materials that powered India’s manufacturing. Such interdependence requires a solid relationship, as disruptions can hurt both countries’ economies.
The recent settlement is a big move in the right direction. It facilitates the resumption of direct flights that were halted in the COVID-19 pandemic and unlocks two Tibetan Western pilgrimage sites for Indian travelers. Both nations have begun reissuing tourist visas for each other’s citizens, indicating a warming of ties that could further enhance economic collaboration.
Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, remarked on the shifting dynamics, stating, “This detente was definitely started by Trump.” Sun’s observation underscores how external pressures have influenced India’s approach toward China.
Current Diplomatic Developments
India’s choice of inviting Russia’s leader comes at a critical inflection point of India’s foreign policy. It lets India promote a stronger role for itself outside of these multilateral groupings. India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a bloc dominated by China, contrasts with its strengthening ties with the Quad—a security grouping involving the United States, Japan, and Australia. This duality represents India’s need to flatten its multipolar relationships in the face of shifting geopolitical winds.
Kewalramani, an analyst on Indian foreign policy, noted that while India’s relationship with the United States remains significant, “India is no longer able to pretend that it still has strong support from Washington.” He was quick to caution that this shouldn’t suggest a wholesale exit from the U.S. Rather, it is an indication of a move toward the present day realities. “To me, it’s not a reset in the sense that India is saying ‘we are done with America.’ That’s not going to happen.”
As Modi prepares for his visit to China, both countries have reportedly agreed upon ten points of consensus regarding their border disputes. These don’t stop at pledges to uphold “peace and tranquility” on their mutually-too-close shared border. These types of agreements provide crucial signals that both parties acknowledge that continued decline in the relationship would be harmful.
