North American caribou are experiencing a very real, and very dramatic, decline. Experts predict a staggering 84% decrease by the turn of the century under a high-emission climate change scenario. Unfortunately, this grim prediction comes with dire consequences for caribou population. It further threatens the ecological integrity of these and other ecosystems, with caribou serving as critical indicators. In neighboring British Columbia, the local herds could fall by up to 61%. That worryingly rapid loss will occur if we cannot prevent our alarming warming patterns from continuing.
The depth of the issue goes beyond countable figures. Climate change would cause the caribou’s geographic range to shrink by 71%, restricting their habitat even more and pitting them against each other for dwindling resources. These trends present significant barriers for Indigenous populations. They have depended on caribou as a key source of food and critical cultural icon for centuries. Scientists took a collaborative approach using fossils and ancient DNA to answer a long-debated question. According to their conclusions, these patterns of caribou dynamics are evident throughout the last 21,000 years.
Climate Change and Human Disturbance
The research underscores how current global warming is rapidly pushing one of the worst declines in caribou populations in thousands of years. Over the past thirty years, human development such as logging, mining, and road construction have severely affected caribou. They are responsible for reducing the global human population by two-thirds. Such disruptions not only obliterate vital calving habitats, they increase the ease with which predators can reach the caribou. Consequently, threats to British Columbia’s caribou herds increase.
In British Columbia specifically, 41% of caribou habitat has been classified as disturbed from fragmentation by logging, oil and gas development, and other human interventions. Development of roads and logging operations not only changes migration patterns but makes these animals more vulnerable to predation. Defenders Rachel Plotkin has a great explanation of this maddening reality. There are sustainable logging practices that can improve or create wildlife habitats. This realization has opened up ample opportunities to find smarter economic solutions that don’t come at the expense of our ecological treasures.
Eddie Petryshen emphasizes the role of caribou as indicators of ecosystem health: “Caribou are kind of a barometer for these ecosystems.” Their declining numbers are a sign of deeper and more troubling environmental conditions that must be addressed and solved with urgency.
Protective Measures Underway
In light of these shocking forecasts, many local and federal government agencies are increasing efforts to help maintain caribou habitat. BC Timber Sales has committed to stop any new investments in unprotected core caribou habitats. These actions work to prevent additional habitat destruction and offer an overall stabilizing effect on populations in the area.
Even taken together—signs of a much-needed sea change—the experts say they’re not enough and that broader strategies are both needed and achievable. The results of the study stress an immediate need for increased investment in caribou management and conservation. This is doubly important in southern and central British Columbia, where we have already witnessed local extinctions.
“That study really underscores the urgency of caribou conservation, particularly in southern and central B.C. where we’ve already seen local extinctions,” – Eddie Petryshen
The Future of Caribou Populations
Unfortunately, looking forward the outlook continues to be bleak for caribou herds from coast to coast. Without concrete action, British Columbia’s caribou population could be reduced by a third, even under moderate or average warming. They could still undergo substantial range expansion. At least in some places, living conditions will be short-term improved. Climate change’s and human activity pressures’ benefits will ultimately take over, it is expected.
Plotkin believes that yes, changes can be made to land management practices without killing jobs. As she says, “We have the wisdom and the imagination to do better by rethinking our approaches. All we have to do is accept that it’s not jobs versus the environment.” Framed this way, there’s real opportunity here to find sustainable ways of doing business that serve both wildlife conservation and economic development.
Canteri provides more nuance to the conversation with this point, “Well, populations are going down but they’re spreading out into larger and larger areas. Wildlife Conservation Society West Alaska program director, John Aho, said caribou are working hard to adapt to rapidly changing environments. These changes may not be possible to continue implementing going forward.
