India’s foreign ministry reiterated the country’s historic bonds with Russia, calling the relationship “very steady and time-tested.” This statement comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s announcement of potential tariffs on Indian goods due to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. India has drastically increased its external crude oil imports from Russia. Now, that rise is taking shape in the immediate geopolitical context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
India’s oil imports from Russia, shown here by the red line in figure 1, have skyrocketed since last year. Unsurprisingly, by January 2022 the country was importing 68,000 barrels of oil per day. Yet by June 2022, that number had soared to 1.12 million barrels per day! India hit a daily oil import record from Russia—2.15 million barrels—in May 2023. This would be a big departure for India’s traditional sourcing approach. This increased reliance on Russian oil comes as the West imposed sanctions on Moscow, prompting India to capitalize on discounted prices.
India’s Position on Russian Oil Imports
The Indian foreign ministry emphasized that its relationship with Russia should not be viewed through the lens of third-party influences. India is the world’s third largest crude oil importer, after China and the United States. Much of its crude oil historically has been supplied from the Middle East. The country’s strategic pivot toward Russia highlights its commitment to securing energy resources at competitive rates amidst global market volatility.
Yet India, the world’s third largest oil consumer, imports about 88% of its oil for an average of 5.5 mbd. This acute reliance on imports shapes India’s strategic thinking in forging energy partnerships. The ministry’s comments illustrate that Indian officials remain laser-focused on their energy security strategy. Most importantly, they will not be intimidated by threats and arm-twisting from other countries.
U.S. Tariff Plans Impacting Trade Relations
President Trump is set to slap a massive 25% tariff on all Indian goods exported to the U.S. He points primarily to the country’s increasing imports of Russian oil as a key factor driving this decision. The tariffs would have far-reaching consequences for India’s economy and increasingly fraught trade relations with the United States. The history of U.S.-India trade relations has been one of cooperation and tension, and this latest move threatens to elevate current tensions.
The tariffs would target a broad range of products, which would make them costly and invite retaliation from India. Or that Indian officials intend to continue purchasing Russian oil – in open defiance of U.S. sanctions or threatened tariffs. This decision further demonstrates their resolve on maintaining their developed country foreign policy and trade policy.
Future Implications for India-Russia Relations
As India walks a tightrope to meet its energy requirements in the current geopolitical landscape, its ties with Russia seem to be deepening. The increase in oil imports from Russia is reflective of a growing partnership that may influence regional dynamics in South Asia and beyond.
India’s New Strategic Vision for Energy Security reaffirms India’s determination to diversify its sources of supply and reduce dependencies. As global energy markets evolve, India’s decisions will likely continue to reflect a balance between national interests and international relations.
