In March 2025, then-former President Donald Trump declared a national emergency along the northern border. He specifically pointed to alarming rates of fentanyl trafficking as justification for his declaration. This proclamation sought to introduce nationwide tariffs on Canada, for the purposes of combating the increasing opioid epidemic. A recent report from a New York-based think tank challenges the rationale behind this emergency, revealing that the vast majority of fentanyl seizures in the United States are linked to the southern border, specifically the border with Mexico.
The report points out how large fentanyl seizures along the Canadian border are unusual. This reality underscored an important point: almost 99 percent of seized fentanyl pills in the U.S. originated at the southern border. Further, almost all (97 percent) of illicit fentanyl powder comes from that region. This new information raises serious questions about the effectiveness and justification of imposing tariffs on Canada in the first place. After all, the root cause of our drug trafficking problem comes from elsewhere.
Details of the National Emergency Declaration
In 2019, Trump declared a national emergency to address the flow of fentanyl trafficked across the Southern border. He subsequently called it our most dangerous national security threat. In his announcement, he argued that measures needed to be taken to protect American communities from the devastating impacts of opioid addiction and overdose deaths.
Most importantly, Trump went after Canada for the sake of America’s economic pressure. So he wanted to stop the inflow of fentanyl into our country. The emergency declaration was met with mixed reactions, prompting discussions among policymakers and experts regarding its intended goals and potential effectiveness.
Findings of the Recent Report
The think tank’s report, published on July 10, 2025, at 12:16 pm and updated shortly thereafter at 12:44 pm, analyzed data on fentanyl seizures across U.S. borders. The findings indicate that while the northern border has seen some drug trafficking activities, it pales in comparison to the overwhelming quantities seized along the southern border.
Focusing solely at the southern border, as the report does, continues to play into the narrative seen in data trends. Law enforcement agencies have pointed to a concerning flood of fentanyl-related substances, mainly from Mexico. This border has turned into an unexpected but essential battleground in this war on opioids.
Implications for U.S.-Canada Relations
The findings from this report could have significant implications for U.S.-Canada relations moving forward. Policymakers need to reconsider their approach to fentanyl trafficking and its origins. This reform would allow the administration to focus on eliminating tariffs on Canada and build more effective cooperation with Mexico.
Advocates for sensible drug policy have long argued that addressing the underlying issues driving drug trafficking requires better coordination on a global scale. They contend that unilateral economic measures must come with smart conditions. The numbers unequivocally back up this contention. Perhaps most importantly, it implies that a whole-of-approach, including all three countries, is imperative for successfully addressing the crisis across borders.
