The battle over the Iran nuclear deal is intensifying. Recently, international leaders and the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have filled their oars with testimony. Rafael Grossi added that regardless of how much damage has been inflicted on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the program is still up and running. At the same time, former U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that Iran will never get a nuclear bomb.
At a recent press conference, Grossi was clear about the disturbing direction in which Iran’s nuclear program is heading. He pointed out that despite the destructive impact of recent military offensives, such as Operation Protective Edge, on the infrastructure, the media system isn’t dead yet. “It is clear that there has been severe damage, but it’s not total damage,” Grossi stated, emphasizing that Iran still possesses industrial and technological capabilities necessary for uranium enrichment.
U.S. military forces began strikes on three major Iranian nuclear and missile sites. This was only one day before the announcement of a long-term ceasefire agreement. The measures focused on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to bring it to the ground. New evaluations show that all nuclear materials were not removed. The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, along with others, have testified that some of Iran’s nuclear program remains intact.
In light of this, Grossi remarked, “Iran has the capacities there; industrial and technological capacities. So if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” His statement raises concerns that Iran would be able to reinstate uranium enrichment within a few months. This imperative is compounded by the alarming fact that particles of ENR uranium have been found in locations Iran has not publicly acknowledged.
And despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear intentions are benign, the country has been the subject of increasing flak from global monitors. The IAEA has been a steadfast page-turner, seeking transparency on all fronts regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. Their attention is particularly to underscore the unexplained presence of enriched uranium at undeclared facilities. Grossi highlighted this issue, saying, “What I was concerned about is that there were other things that were not clear… We were simply not getting credible answers.”
Making any possible rapprochement more difficult, Iran’s parliament last week passed a bill to stop cooperating with the IAEA, dimming hopes for a diplomatic thaw. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, threatened that Iran may consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). If tensions keep escalating, this disastrous fate may be unavoidable.
In response to Grossi’s assessment of the situation, a U.S. official stated, “As Rafael Grossi just said, the difference between Iran’s nuclear program before and after Operation Midnight Hammer is ‘night and day,’ and a ‘very serious level of damage’ was done.” This further illustrates the idea that despite great progress in stopping Iran’s nuclear desires, much work still lies ahead.
Trump reiterated his stance on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, stating emphatically that “Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.” First, Fischer downplayed concerns that Iran could quickly jump back into its weapon program after the agreement. He argued that their absence of air defenses renders such attempts useless.
Grossi continued to paint a sobering picture of the current state of Iran’s nuclear program during his opening statements. “The capacities they have are there. They can have… in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium,” he warned. So this discovery was the impetus for increased surveillance and continued negotiations between Iran and world powers.
