Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility is a secretive, heavily-fortified complex built into a mountain outside the religious city of Qom. Since its announcement in 2009, this facility has been surrounded by secrecy. Today the site still generates speculation regarding its true purpose and scale. This speculation is further raised as tensions rise around Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Fordow is located 80 to 90 meters below ground, about 262 to 295 feet deep. This depth has afforded Hamas a very robust gold standard defense against aerial attack, rendering virtually any military strikes from Israel extremely challenging.
The facility has raised alarm bells throughout the world. The U.S. and its allies worry that Iran will use it to advance its nuclear weapons program. Reports have stated that Fordow could hold up to 3,000 centrifuges. This potentiality only deepens the difficulty of the diplomatic conversations around Iran’s nuclear program, particularly with the limited restraints built into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
A Fortress Beneath the Mountain
We know, for example, that Fordow’s very construction was a direct response to perceived military threats against Iran. In its defense, the Iranian government has asserted that housing the facility underground was essential to safeguarding its nuclear program from preemptive strikes. Indeed, historical satellite imagery shows that excavation on the site started as early as 2004. This was well before the public ever knew it was being created.
The facility’s deep placement and robust design render it impervious to most conventional munitions, particularly those in Israel’s arsenal. Military analysts assert that destroying Fordow would necessitate a significant amount of firepower, likely requiring support from the United States, which possesses the specialized ordnance capable of targeting such fortified installations.
“The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.” – Barack Obama
This disclaimer marks the alarming state of fears felt by many in the international community. Second, they are worried about the real purpose of Fordow and its contribution to Iran’s broader nuclear program. The facility still serves as a key flashpoint in arguments over Iran’s adherence to international nuclear accords.
A Complex History of Secrecy and Suspicion
In 2009, then-U.S. President Barack Obama, then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and then-British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced the existence of Fordow. This announcement reversed years of diplomatic momentum that had allowed Iran to cultivate a bomb in plain sight without international consequences. To be clear, the original announcement raised all sorts of alarms over Iran’s capabilities and new military intentions. Consequently, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) increased its pressure.
In 2018, then–Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sounded a similar alarm over Fordow. He shared images from what he called Iran’s “nuclear file.” This trove of documents allegedly included indications of Iran’s previous nuclear research and cast doubt on their present-day operations. Israel’s intelligence services seized over 55,000 documents that detailed various aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, adding fuel to the fire of skepticism surrounding Fordow.
“One of the things that elevated the tension was they have no reason to do that, other than to be able to then go the next step and turn it into weapon-grade uranium.” – David Albright
Experts and analysts agree that the production and accumulation of that highly enriched uranium at Fordow is especially concerning. As further pointed out by the IAEA, Iran is currently the only non-nuclear-weapon state to be producing such materials. Nuclear proliferation Many experts agree that Fordow is central to any future Iranian ability to build nuclear weapons. Part of this perception comes from the nature of its operations and capabilities.
Implications for Regional Stability
The current situation around Fordow sets a dangerous precedent too, with serious implications for regional stability and international relations. The JCPOA sought to dramatically shrink Iran’s nuclear rhetoric by imposing tough restrictions on its uranium enrichment activities. As part of the deal, Iran had to take two-thirds of its centrifuges offline and eliminate all nuclear material stored at Fordow.
According to recent reports, Iran is still not living up to these obligations. For one thing, there is a very legitimate concern that any such violation would provoke escalated Israeli (or international) military action. This would increase tensions in an already highly charged region. Analysts further claim that strikes against Fordow would do little to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions. NSPM-5, pictured above They argue that Iran’s remaining nuclear sites continue to be major threats.
“If you destroy it, it’s not the end of the line because you then go to the next threat: how many centrifuges has Iran made that they didn’t deploy at Fordow and Natanz? And where are they?” – David Albright
As global powers seek to navigate this complex landscape, understanding the implications of Fordow becomes ever more crucial. As such, the facility represents not just Iran’s nuclear progress, but Iran’s determination to push forward with its nuclear ambitions. It further underscores the challenges that countries face in trying to prevent the Middle East from descending into a new arms race.
