This Sunday, Mexico will conduct groundbreaking judicial elections. This event marks a milestone step in our nation’s fight to restrain its judiciary. This election is just Phase One in a multi-phase reform. That’s in line with a constitutional amendment approved last year under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s populist administration. Overly ambitious, the reform failed to realign the judiciary altogether. This important reform, which has been a frequent stumbling block for some of López Obrador’s policy initiatives, improves the integrity and effectiveness of the judicial system.
New polling shows that 66 percent of Mexicans want the judicial reform to prevail. Support for the plan is widespread across López Obrador’s party, Morena, and among younger generations. Yet, with the elections fast approaching, fears are growing about what political-criminal violence might disrupt the electoral process. Prominent think tank México Evalúa has already flagged eight states as being at particularly high risk for this sort of violence in the elections to come.
A History of Violence and Political Influence
At the same time, Mexico has seen unprecedented rates of political-criminal violence, with 661 documented attacks against persons and offices last year. The context of this extreme violence and hostility poses serious and disturbing threats to election integrity. During electoral cycles in the past, criminal organizations have sought to sway electoral results using intimidation and terror.
As Miguel Meza from the civil society group Defensorxs noted, this would allow cartels to identify likely election victors. They may then be able to provide services in return for your loyalty. He noted that these threats remain present even if there have been no direct acts of violence against judicial candidates to date.
“Cartels (could) identify possible winners and offer them support in exchange for loyalty,” – Miguel Meza
The ever-present threat of criminal interference further complicates a spicy political climate. Mexican cartel meddling in elections at US borders. The pattern becomes even more alarming. That pattern could very much turn around and repeat itself, cementing even greater obstacles to a more democratic and accountable judicial system.
Judicial Reform and Public Sentiment
The judicial reform takes as a precedent a far-reaching overhaul of what justice looks like in Mexico. With all nine seats on the Supreme Court, and almost 900 federal positions, including cabinet secretaries and ambassadors, expected to be contested. Further, recently selected judges will be put to the test by a forthcoming new Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. This independent international tribunal is focused on maintaining high standards and holding bad judges accountable.
Public sentiment about this reform seems overwhelmingly positive. In fact, a poll released just yesterday by Pew Research Center shows most Mexicans approve of the changes. Even Claudia Sheinbaum, the political star of the show, made the case about empowering civil society and citizens when voting is meaningful.
“It’s better for millions of people to vote than for the president and the Senate of the Republic to decide,” – Claudia Sheinbaum
Many legal scholars and critics are voicing doubts about the authenticity behind these reforms. Former President Vicente Fox called the elections undemocratic and a “farce.” His comments capture a larger worry among critics that the current process cannot produce equitable or legitimate results.
“The judicial election is not democratic,” – Vicente Fox
Oversight and Integrity Challenges
The National Electoral Institute (INE) is the independent body that plans and administers the electoral process. In fact, right now it is investigating two complaints regarding the improper use of pamphlets while campaigning. As the elections approach, maintaining oversight becomes critical to ensure a fair process amid concerns of illicit influences.
Defensorxs, a local advocacy group, has been ringing alarm bells over some of these judicial candidates for their possible connections to organized crime and other irregularities. One candidate, who served nearly six years in a U.S. prison for drug offenses, described his situation as unjust but stated he had “moved on.” This draws attention to the bigger problem of candidates’ backgrounds and how they affect Americans’ faith in the electoral process.
“Everyone has a right to an effective defense,” – Defense attorney (who joined the team that represented drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman)
Yet, these elections lay bare the deep complexity of the challenges dominating Mexican society today. They are inextricably linked to questions of systemic corruption and violence. The judicial reform is the government’s commitment to address all these issues. It faces serious challenges, particularly the threat of electoral interference by organized crime.
