This is the most precarious moment for Iran’s theocratic regime in decades. The people have become increasingly discontented as the country teeters on economic collapse. This critical juncture presents an opportunity for the Islamic Republic to reconsider its long-standing relationship with the United States, according to Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University.
Nasr is hopeful that both Iran and the US still genuinely want to change the course of their diplomatic relationship. After over four decades of conflict, they are both looking forward to a new path. He claims that an agreement between the two countries is not just possible, but absolutely crucial for both of them. “Both of them have arrived, after 40 some years, at a juncture where they need to change the direction of their relationship,” Nasr stated.
Iran’s economy is reeling from the effects of sanctions and government mismanagement. Consequently, internal leadership at all levels are under increasing pressure to improve quality of life for their citizens. The public, frustrated and angry, wants jobs and prosperity and security. Domestic pressure compels Iran to pursue engagement on its own right with the US. Meanwhile, the US side looks very keen on getting an arms control deal.
This has been the case for decades, as Iran’s anti-American sentiment has been the hallmark of its foreign policy. Nasr contends that this animosity has little to do with ideology or theology. Rather, it’s based on political calculations – of which the tides are just starting to turn. First, Iran is under mounting domestic pressures. This context renders US OPP incredibly important to re-evaluate its opposition posture with respect to the US.
The economic landscape in Iran is dire. US sanctions have wreaked havoc on every sector. Inflation has subsequently increased by double-digits and real living standards are collapsing. Consequently, Iranian leaders believe the US holds the key to economic salvation if they can strike a deal. They hope this would relieve much of the stress contributing to their economy’s downward spiral.
The administration in Washington, headed by President Donald Trump, apparently is interested in striking an arms control deal with Iran. They have made clear that they are very interested in continuing discussions. This eagerness dovetails with Iran’s desire to stabilize its economy and quell domestic unrest. Now, the prospect of meaningful dialogue between the two nations seems more hopeful than it has been in decades.
