Since mid-January, the U.S. has seen no new human cases of bird flu. While this quick drop in infections is great news, it has understandably led many health professionals to ask, why? In recent months, the country has faced outbreaks of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza among poultry and domestic birds. Fortunately, no human cases have been reported since January 14. This surprising trend has led researchers to explore alternative explanations.
Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University, told The Post she was puzzled by the absence of human cases.
“We just don’t know why there haven’t been cases,” – Jennifer Nuzzo
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza in question has been circulating among wild birds, poultry and other animals around the world for several years now. During the previous 14-month period, the U.S. recorded only 70 human infections. The majority of these cases were among employees of dairy and poultry farms.
Even though there haven’t been any human cases in the Erie County area recently, animal infections continue to occur. The U.S. Agriculture Department has recently confirmed more than 120 domestic cats positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. Barn cats that died after drinking raw milk were one of the earliest tails of the virus in dairy cows. None of us could have envisioned this grim reality coming to pass in 2024.
The virologist Angela Rasmussen, of the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, flagged that missing piece. She suspects that the drop in targeted surveillance since former President Trump’s inauguration is exacerbating things.
“I can’t argue with anyone who would be risking getting shipped to a Salvadoran gulag for reporting an exposure or seeking testing,” – Angela Rasmussen
By late 2024, surveillance data from health officials recorded monthly testing of at least 50 people for bird flu. Recently, that number has seen a freefall. State records show that only three residents were tested in March, one test in April, and zero in May. The sharp drop in testing is particularly alarming, as this likely means widespread underreporting of infections.
Kristen Coleman, a researcher at the University of Maryland at College Park, offered her perspective on the critical need for improved surveillance in pet cats. Infection rates are increasing in these animals.
“It’s easy to downplay something because that’s usually what humans do,” – Kristen Coleman
Michael Osterholm, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Minnesota, believes it is improbable that a serious human infection would go unnoticed. His experience emphasizes the need for strong monitoring systems to protect public health.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the potentially dangerous strains of bird flu that are circulating have been classified as follows: Though today, they represent a “moderate risk” for a future pandemic. In short, Dr. Gregory Gray, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, is feeling pretty darn secure. So he’s not terribly worried that so few have been reported.
“Bird flu remains a significant concern for certain populations but doesn’t warrant alarm at this moment,” Dr. Gray noted.
While health officials work to get a handle on what’s been dubbed the next Zika, experts widely say improving surveillance and testing procedures needs to be a priority. The recent patterns suggest that while immediate threats may appear diminished, complacency could lead to unforeseen outbreaks.
