Canada Ontario’s right-wing government has finally released full details of a $232.5 billion record budget for 2025-26 fiscal year. Yet this budget is filled with a projected $7.8 billion deficit. That is the context for Premier Doug Ford’s government’s current fixation with balancing the budget by 2027-28. They have pushed back their anticipated surplus, originally scheduled for 2026-27, to the year after. The budget reflects a commitment to economic growth and infrastructure development, despite facing rising debt and ongoing challenges in the housing sector.
Overall, we see the budget’s strong investments across a number of important priorities. Not surprisingly, it includes a $5 billion “emergency backstop” fund and $11 billion for helping Ontario businesses compete. It includes $280 million to open dozens of new private-sector public health clinics. This decision represents a definitive step towards increasing access to care at a time when demand is increasing.
It brings the province’s interest costs to $16.2 billion. Even still, this is a drop in the bucket compared to operating expenses, which are currently at historic lows since the late-1980s. Ontario’s net debt is projected to climb to $460 billion, which is causing many to question its long term fiscal sustainability.
Peter Bethlenfalvy, Ontario’s Finance Minister spoke broadly of the need for economic growth in his recognition of external pressures.
“The U.S. tariffs, and the economic uncertainty surrounding them, highlight the underlying issues we face as an economy and a nation. Now is the time for growth and improvement,” – Peter Bethlenfalvy
The budget promises to build a better future for Indigenous communities—including tripling a loan-guarantee fund to $3 billion. The provision creates a $500 million fund to build new processing plants for critical minerals. Today’s $246 million investment is a clear indication that the province is committed to supporting Alberta’s resource sector.
Even with these investments, the budget has drawn fire from opposition parties. Marit Stiles, new leader of the Ontario NDP, condemned the government’s response.
“Instead, the Ford government chose more cuts, less relief and no real support for families who need help right now,” – Marit Stiles
The budget prioritizes public safety by allocating $57 million, nearly $30 million more than the city’s 2022-23 proposal, for two new police helicopters. Province-wide, this investment will improve the province’s capacity for law enforcement.
In addition to immediate financial measures, the government is aiming to tackle Ontario’s housing crisis by committing to its goal of constructing 1.5 million homes by 2031. This goal is at more risk than ever as housing starts continue to decline. All of this begs the question: how do we expect to house the growing population in the coming years?
Public health advocates have criticized big chunks of the new budget, especially in terms of allocations for social services and healthcare. Bonnie Crombie, Mayor of Mississauga, expressed disappointment that the government appeared to be prioritizing highways over transit.
“I‘m frustrated watching yet again this Premier care more about alcohol, which is mentioned more than 100 times in the budget, than health care,” – Bonnie Crombie
Ford’s administration is reinvesting in its signature “Protect Ontario” approach. They are committing to fiscal responsibility and investing strategically to strengthen economic resilience.
The budget predicts a real growth in GDP of just 0.8 percent next year. This is a sign of cautious optimism, despite the backdrop of global economic uncertainty.
As Ontario grapples with these complex challenges, the government’s approach will undoubtedly be scrutinized as stakeholders seek clarity on how these financial strategies will impact everyday lives and the broader economy in the coming years.
