Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 as part of the Venera mission to explore Venus, is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere early Saturday morning. Kosmos 482 had initially been intended as a sister probe to Venera 8¾. Unfortunately, it experienced an anomaly during its launch on a Soyuz rocket, preventing it from achieving the speed required to travel to its planned destination.
For more than 55 years, Kosmo 482 has continued to be ensnared by an elliptical orbit around the Earth. The spacecraft, which measures approximately 3 feet wide and weighs about 1,091 pounds, is projected to enter the atmosphere at around 2:26 a.m. EDT (06:26 GMT) on May 10. The forecast has an associated uncertainty of ±4.35 hours. This leads to a currently estimated reentry window of May 9 at 10 p.m. EDT through May 10 at 7 a.m. EDT.
Potential Landing Zones
Though the area of potential landing is large, the unique nature of Kosmos 482’s reentry heightens this concern. This latitude restriction leads to a landing region between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. This range encompasses almost every heavily-populated area on Earth. Despite these fears, experts indicate that the chance of Kosmos 482 hitting a person remains low, with estimates suggesting “the usual one-in-several-thousand chance” associated with falling debris from space.
Approaching atmospheric reentry, Kosmos 482 will be moving at over 150 mph (242 km/h). It’s important to remember that this spacecraft is built to thrive, not just survive, in brutal conditions. Thus, it will almost certainly remain whole as it comes down through the atmosphere.
“We’re seeing a rise in reentries involving larger objects that can partially survive and reach the surface,” – Woods
In the opinion of Derek Woods, an expert in atmospheric science this is where things get really unpredictable. He states, “The atmospheric density in the lower altitudes (50 to 300 km) [30 to 185 miles] is very uncertain, which can result in large prediction uncertainties.”
The Legacy of Kosmos 482
Kosmos 482 was a part of the Soviet Union’s extremely ambitious Venera program, created to explore Venus. The Venera mission, which successfully launched its forbearers Venera 7 and 8 in 1970 and 1972 respectively. Alas, owing to its launch failure, Kosmos 482 never got the chance to realize its long-term purpose of traveling to Venus.
New satellite imagery suggests that the lander may have deployed its parachute back in 2018. In fact, this could have a major influence on its descent trajectory. This phenomenon further underscores the growing problem of space debris and the rising occurrence of uncontrolled reentries.
“Intact satellites or rocket bodies … now re-entering the Earth atmosphere on average more than three times a day,” – ESA report
Kosmos 482 is one of more than 1.2 million pieces of space debris. Each of these fragments is larger than 0.4 inches (1 centimeter) and actively orbiting Earth. As the number of these objects has rapidly increased, so too has the risk of orbital collisions and uncontrolled reentries.
The Future of Space Debris Management
The impending reentry of Kosmos 482 draws attention to a broader issue: managing space debris. Experts warn that with more and more satellites and spacecraft in orbit, the odds of such occurrences is unfortunately becoming more likely.
That’s why the work to develop strategies to track and reduce space debris is so urgently needed. This unexpected event is a reminder that materials from previous space endeavors can return to Earth at any time. So to protect satellite operations and ensure public safety, we need improved monitoring systems and increased international cooperation.
