As a result, tensions between India and Pakistan have reached new heights. Both countries have mobilized military forces and are regularly committing acts of aggression along the disputed line of control in Kashmir. Though this area is legally the equal territory of both countries, they administer it very unevenly and cooperate poorly. For decades, it has been ground zero for the region’s toxic conflicts, igniting three prior wars. The present day reality is heavily influenced by past hostilities. Further complicating matters are geopolitical considerations with China, which has become a strong force in the region.
India has carried out highly-publicized and aggressive military strikes against what it calls terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. This escalation follows closely on the heels of India’s accusations that Pakistan has been supporting militant groups. These groups remain a potent threat to the security environment in Kashmir. Until now, the Indian Ministry of Defense has countered such criticism by insisting that these operations are vital to national security.
Pakistan’s military provided dramatic footage of their first-day counterinterception. Specifically, these jets were manning airstrikes on some of Pakistan’s most critical military installations, including Nur Khan Air Base, Shorkot Air Base, and Murid Air Base. Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, Chief of Air Staff, said these aircraft had been detected in time.
“India hit Nur Khan Air Base, Shorkot Air Base and Murid Air Base from their jets, all were intercepted.” – Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry
As the fighting continues to broaden, on all sides of the conflict, international observers have warned about how much further regional instability could go. Michael Kugelman, a leading specialist on South Asian affairs, called the humanitarian crisis “catastrophic.”
“The escalation dynamics are extremely concerning here.” – Michael Kugelman
Historically, both nations maintain substantial military capabilities. India has an active-duty force of about 1.5 million personnel—more than twice as many as Pakistan, which has 660,000 active-duty soldiers. New Delhi’s defense budget exceeds Islamabad’s by over nine times. This is straight out of this year’s “The Military Balance,” released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Pakistan already relies heavily on China for military hardware. In fact, over the last five years, China has been responsible for approximately 81% of Pakistan’s weapon imports. This security partnership has further militarized and inflamed Kashmir. China is seeking to establish itself as a major counterweight to India as the Sino-Pakistani ‘all-weather’ friendship grows stronger. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson has publicly condemned the rising conflict.
“China is closely following the current situation between India and Pakistan and is deeply concerned about the escalation.” – China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson
In an attempt to broker this conflict, China has urged both countries to focus on maintaining peace and stability. The spokesperson called for all actors to exercise restraint and called on both sides to resolve the situation through political means and peaceful demonstrations.
“We strongly urge both sides to prioritize the broader interest of peace and stability, remain calm and restrained, and return to the path of political resolution through peaceful means.” – China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson
In tangible terms, the budgetary ramifications of current strains are eye-popping. Moody’s Investors Service warned that ongoing military conflict could limit Pakistan’s economic development and threaten its progress on fiscal consolidation. The agency cautioned that rising political and social tensions could further damage Pakistan’s ability to obtain external financing and exacerbate pressures on its foreign-exchange reserves.
Soon, India’s call received support at an IMF Board meeting. They called attention to the threat that debt financing funds could be diverted to support state-sponsored cross-border terrorism. The International Monetary Fund recently approved a new $1.4 billion under its new Resilience and Sustainability Facility. They’ve chosen to withhold disbursement until they get more assurances.
At the same time, Pakistan has been regularly courting economic support to stabilize its fast collapsing economy. After months of hard bargaining, the nation won a $7 billion IMF bailout. Continued military engagements might not only jeopardize these efforts but exacerbate its fiscal precariousness.
Both countries have recently accused the other of warlike provocations and infringements. India’s government has long accused Pakistan of helping to harbor Islamist militant groups that specifically target Indian interests in Kashmir. Pakistan categorically denies this accusation.
