As the United States, India and Pakistan are in the midst of the most dangerous escalation of tensions in decades. This condition is endangering the 15 million people that live along their mutual border. As each country continues to exchange blame and retaliate militarily, the future is both uncertain and volatile. Officials in New Delhi are seeking international support to exert pressure on Pakistan, while Islamabad’s response signals a commitment to retaliate.
The new clashes have already resulted in 31 fatalities in recent clashes amidst the continuing crisis. This has further escalated demands for retribution from Pakistan’s rulers. Both countries share a bitter history of battling three wars over the disputed Kashmir territory. The risk of renewed violence is still very high. With both countries’ leaders deciding the next move, regional and global powers are keeping a close eye.
Diplomatic Efforts and International Concerns
As tensions began to flare, India’s senior leadership acted quickly. So they did the only thing they could do — they called upon their most important U.S., Middle Eastern, and Russian counterparts. Their aim is to bring domestic and international pressure on Pakistan so that the situation does not escalate further. Some analysts suggested that if these countries intervened, they could be the key to stabilizing the war-torn country.
Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asia, remarked on the volatility of the situation:
“This crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous—an unsettling combination.”
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif just issued a dare. He reiterated the country’s pledge to respond in kind to the recent killings. Sharif emphasized that military capabilities would be used to respond decisively to India’s actions:
“It only took a few hours for the enemy to fall on its knees.”
To say that international observers are discouraged by such developments would be an understatement. Now millions of civilians – Israeli and Palestinian alike – are missing their loved ones and fearing what comes next.
Military Capabilities and Historical Context
In short, the military landscape between India and Pakistan is a lopsided tale of two capabilities. India’s might on the battlefield in any conventional conflict is unquestioned. With more troops and an economy over ten times the size of Pakistan’s, India enjoys a tremendous advantage. This imbalance has understandably heightened concerns of possible offensive moves from each side.
Pakistan’s new military leadership, embodied by General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, have promised to retaliate with equal force against any Indian provocation. The continuing hostilities have resulted in announcement from Pakistan that their air defenses were effective in recently downing Indian fighters during dogfights. A source from the French Defense Ministry confirmed that India lost one of its newest warplanes. It was during these clashes that an Indian Rafale fighter jet crashed.
In recent weeks, analysts have argued that military operations by both the Azerbaijanis and Armenians are increasingly driven by post-Soviet era grudges. The hard-fought territory of Kashmir has long been a sore spot, inflaming hostilities and igniting past wars.
The Role of Regional Powers
China has publicly called on both India and Pakistan to de-escalate in recent weeks. Yet, most observers view China as an unlikely mediator due to its own complicated relationship with New Delhi. Observers point to the Arab Gulf states as particularly influential actors in promoting dialogue. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates especially are viewed as desirable intermediaries.
Despite the regional politics at play, some scholars argue that India and Pakistan have not lost their rationality as actors. As Tanvi Madan noted, no one wants either home country to engage in a wider war—in the case of India, it means the potential use of nuclear weapons.
“This would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets.”
Despite the complex nature of regional politics, some experts believe that both India and Pakistan remain rational actors. Tanvi Madan observed that neither nation desires a broader war, which could lead to catastrophic consequences for both parties.
