British Columbia’s (B.C.) recent report on climate emissions reveals a stark reality: the province will not meet its ambitious climate targets set for 2030. The report details the journey from 2007 to 2022. It exemplifies that even with B.C.’s success in decreasing per capita emissions, a large chasm still exists in achieving its total targets. Instead, B.C. is on track to cut emissions by just 20% below 2007 levels by 2030. This is a woeful reduction compared to its initial pledge to reach at least a 40% reduction, as per the Climate Change Accountability Act.
Those key findings come at an urgent time. Or, perhaps more accurately, authorities are preparing themselves to start the process of reviewing the CleanBC program and establishing sectoral emissions targets. Here’s what some experts are saying on the impact of that report. Thomas Green, senior climate policy advisor at the David Suzuki Foundation, describes the findings as more realistic than in previous assessments. In the piece, he focuses on the need to be honest about the road to progress.
Emissions Trends in B.C.
From 2007 to 2022, B.C. was successful in reaching a net per person emissions reduction of 21.6%. They went down from 15.3 tonnes to only 12 tonnes of carbon dioxide per capita. Even with this progress, B.C.’s per capita emissions are still higher than those of Ontario, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island. They’re still far below the peak levels seen in the other Prairie provinces and in parts of Atlantic Canada.
As the environment ministry’s own press release stated, transportation has become the largest polluting sector, making up 42% of the province’s total emissions as of 2022. Remarkably, emissions from this sector surged by 18% over that same period, propelled primarily by the booming commercial trucking sector. The industrial sector—oil and gas production in particular—was responsible for another 39% of total emissions.
“It’s almost a quarter of our total emissions.” – Thomas Green
As of our most recent report, B.C. emitted 65.6 million tonnes of carbon pollution in 2022. That’s just a 0.2% increase since the base year of 2007. This growing trend serves as a sober reminder that it’s not enough to simply lower emissions—our efforts need to promote economic growth. Over that same span, B.C.’s real gross domestic product exploded by a remarkable 41%.
Challenges Ahead
Meanwhile, experts have been raising alarming red flags about the direction of future emissions cuts. This, as political scientist Kathryn Harrison of the University of British Columbia underscores, speaks to the government’s candor. She emphasizes that they’ve made no secret of their failure to reach any of their climate targets. She points out the alleged “considerable unknowns” around future reductions projected from 2023 through 2026.
“I am concerned. I don’t see enough attention on what they’re going to do to fix this.” – Thomas Green
Against this backdrop of challenges, Harrison insists that decarbonizing the economy is more important now than ever. She makes the case that while difficult, reaching this goal is necessary for making a significant impact on climate change.
“There’s no way to fix climate change other than to decarbonize our economy. And that’s proving to be harder than many of us assumed.” – Kathryn Harrison
The current emissions gap is 13 Mt CO2eq. That’s almost the equivalent of the yearly pollution from four million passenger vehicles! This worsened gap begs immediate answers to where B.C. goes from here with respect to its climate pledges.
Policy Implications
This report provides a key accountability lens for all stakeholders to use in evaluating B.C’s climate strategy. Without stronger policies, the province risks ensuring that it fails to make any meaningful progress in reducing emissions. For instance, Green’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap could be a gamechanger in pushing for more meaningful progress.
“This doesn’t mean we can’t do these things, but it means it’s hard.” – Kathryn Harrison
B.C. to prepare for interim assessments and fresh measures under the CleanBC program. These experts all insist that we need to act now if we’re going to close the emissions gap and get the province on a path toward a greener future.
