Canada’s federal elections seem to be always right around the corner. Political contenders are currently making hay over the U.S.-China trade flare-ups, particularly in the wake of remarks made by ex-President Donald Trump. Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, has gone out of his way to distance himself from Trump comparisons. He focuses on his distinctive vision for Canada’s role in the world. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, is positioning himself as a dark horse. Specifically, he is most passionate about helping the country to sail through the stormy seas of the U.S. economy.
In recent statements, Poilievre has strongly denounced Trump’s promises to turn Canada into the 51st U.S. state. He argues that these claims are harmful to Canadian sovereignty and Canada/US trade. Most importantly, he has spoken up in favor of reciprocal tariffs. He argues they are the strongest tools available for promoting and protecting Canadian interests in uncertain global times.
Poilievre has long maintained that he is “not MAGA,” a nod to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. This declaration is intended to encourage Canadians by reassuring them of his commitment to a distinct Canadian identity divorced from the ebb and flow of U.S. political dynamics.
Trade Wars and Economic Impact
The impact of Trump’s policies on Canadian trade has been considerable. His steep tariffs on automobiles have raised prices for consumers on both sides of the border, creating a ripple effect that could influence voter behavior in the upcoming elections. Randall Morck, a leading expert in economic trends, focused on the wider meaning of what these tariffs are doing. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed, “Stock prices are down, so everyone is poorer.”
In terms of communications and advocacy, Carney has been more out front than Pierre Poilievre at highlighting the potential impacts of these tariffs and how Canada should respond. He is forecasting “some very tough days ahead” for Canadian workers, largely as a result of the pressure that U.S. trade policy has placed on the Canadian economy. Carney is now focusing on helping other countries build trade connections with them and coordinating the response to U.S. tariffs with others on Trump’s hit list.
“These tariffs are fundamentally damaging to the American economy and by extension to the global economy,” – Mark Carney
These calls for action resonate with Canadians of all backgrounds. They view Carney as extremely well prepared to navigate the country through a possible trade war with a long-time friend and ally such as the U.S. Trump administration. Carney hasn’t completely closed the door on further discussions with Trump. Instead, he’s focusing efforts on rebuilding with the partners he deems to be more “dependable.”
Poilievre’s Political Experience and Rhetoric
Regardless of the challenge posed by U.S.-Canada relations, Poilievre’s campaign has resonated with Canadians tired of years of stagnant and at times regressing Liberal leadership. His incendiary rhetoric is now directed toward reducing taxation and administration. That second route fits neatly with populist “Canada First” policy that strikes a chord with most constituents. Now Poilievre can’t stop bragging about his decades of political experience. As a former cabinet minister under the former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he is positioning himself as a rare seasoned candidate prepared to guide Canada through tough economic times.
Unlike Trump, he comes from a humble background, the son of two schoolteachers. This narrative affords that candidate the opportunity to craft an image aligned with voters’ desire for authenticity and relatability in their leaders.
“In a crisis it’s important to come together and it’s essential to act with purpose and with force. And that’s what we will do,” – Mark Carney
The electoral landscape is shifting quickly. Economic experts believe that voters will reward those candidates who show the ability to lessen the burdens of this continuing trade war.
“I expect that [voters] are going to vote for the candidate that they think will minimize the cost of the trade war with the US,” – Randall Morck
The Path Forward
The next federal elections will the most dire turning point for Canada. Candidates are now traversing the precarious foreign waters that Trump’s regime has created. Poilievre and Carney provide two fundamentally opposed blueprints for addressing these issues. Poilievre’s rampant nationalism is anathema to what Carney is calling for with building strategic partnerships outside U.S. borders.
As voters head to the polls, homegrown concerns will likely be top of mind. Beyond that, they’ll look for candidates to demonstrate a real understanding of how to deal with outside-in pressures from an erratic, autocratic neighbor.
