Terrorists carried out a deplorable terror attack on tourists visiting Pahalgam, one of the most popular tourist destinations in IAK. At least 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national perished in the violence. The attack has caused a national outcry and disdain by Indian leaders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to hunt down the perpetrators. The incident has resulted in heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Yet both countries passionately contest Kashmir entirely and have a bloody history over the territory.
The Kashmir Resistance, self identified on social media as The Resistance Front (TRF), took responsibility for the attack online. They made plain their contempt for those “outsiders” – people or families who moved into the area and altered its racial composition. In response to the blasphemy incident, Indian authorities have increased police and military forces in the region. They’re working tirelessly to find everyone who’s guilty. The fate of the conflict continues to hang in the balance as both countries deal with the implications of such a brutal attack.
Modi’s Vow for Justice
During a speech in Bihar, Prime Minister Modi addressed the nation regarding the attack, promising that India would “identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.” He promised to pursue the attackers “to the earth’s corners.” This very much demonstrates his deep dedication to finding and ensuring justice for the victims and their families.
“From the soil of Bihar I say to the whole world, India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.” – Narendra Modi
Modi’s statements reflect a broader sentiment among Indian officials who are calling for a strong response to this act of violence. The government is convinced that it needs to show zero tolerance and act firmly against groups such as the TRF. In January, India designated the TRF as a terrorist group. This dangerous designation links TRF to the banned Islamist terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT). LeT is perhaps best known for perpetrating the 2008 Mumbai attack.
The Indian security forces are on the warpath against the attackers. At the same time, Kashmir police have made public advertisements naming three suspects associated with the killing. This increased demand for accountability is a valuable reminder of the seriousness with which the Indian government needs to treat this moment.
Rising Tensions Between India and Pakistan
The attack was launched at a time when relations between India and Pakistan over Kashmir were already extremely tense. Since India revoked Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy in 2019, bringing it directly under New Delhi’s control, tensions have escalated dramatically. Both countries have taken to the rhetorical battlefield, with Pakistan outright denying its role in this most recent attack.
Pakistan had initially responded to the violence by trumpeting plans for a national security conference. On the agenda, officials will discuss how they plan to move forward. To make matters worse, India’s move to suspend its part in the Indus Water Treaty only adds fuel to the fire. This treaty is the main water-sharing agreement between the two countries. Many observers see this decision as highly destabilizing to relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.
In explaining these developments’ wide-reaching implications, Fahd Humayun, a specialist in South Asian security issues remarked,
“Downgrading diplomatic ties and holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance does not bode well for stability in the region,” – Fahd Humayun
The suspension of this treaty bodes ill for Pakistan, where water rights are viewed as a national security concern. Humayun reiterated that any actions considered provocative would only increase chances of escalation between the two countries.
Reactions from Kashmir and International Concerns
Recent local reactions to the attack have emphasized something different — a show of cross-community solidarity among Kashmiris. Prominent activist Umar Nazir Tibetbaqan captured the palpable grief felt by so many at this moment across the region. He said they must not sit back as such violence continues.
“We all could not just sit by and watch. We came out to show emotion, solidarity, and condemn the killings,” – Umar Nazir Tibetbaqan
The protests that followed were a reminder that when the chips are down, Kashmiri citizens are as much with India as they are against us during peacetime strife. There are serious concerns about the impact of what India will do militarily in reaction to this incident. Analysts believe that India’s military power has significantly increased since 2019. This expansion might incentivize India to externally preemptively strike against terrorist networks and possibly even Pakistani military assets.
As my colleague, regional security expert Arzan Tarapore, asked, these were not easy questions. What was India going to do next?
“The key question will be will they seek to impose more meaningful, tangible costs on terrorist groups, including by targeting their leadership or headquarters facilities?” – Arzan Tarapore
In his address, he urged against the dangers of increasing conflict. Without wise self-control or mediation from outsiders, things might get ugly very quickly.
“Absent strategic restraint or third-party intervention, the chances of uncontrolled escalation in the coming days is thus not insignificant,” – Fahd Humayun
With these dynamics in mind, talk of retaliatory measures is escalating. With an election closing in, Modi’s government could come under strong domestic and international pressure to act decisively. Analysts are still cautioning that any miscalculation might lead to disastrous consequences for the two nations and their peoples.
