Donald Trump has dramatically raised the stakes on the Administration’s trade war by threatening to apply sweeping tariffs—a blunt weapon—to entire sectors of imports from dozens of countries. The proposed tariffs would create chaos in global supply chains. According to Trump, Trump said that Canada (and possibly other countries) would get a softer treatment than other countries. The Conservative Party of Canada is going through a similar process of self-destruction. They are doing some excellent work proactively strategizing on how to counter these threats.
Avoiding the Conservative Party’s disastrous response to Trump’s global tariff threats, the centrepiece of Mark Carney’s leadership campaign. Carney has prioritized building Canada’s resilience against U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the importance of a robust economic strategy to withstand and thrive amidst these external pressures. As the Conservatives go to campaign — if that happens — they will face the usual, longstanding bugaboo of Tories in campaigns — internal divisions. The ruling party is made up of an uneasy coalition of urban, business-focused interests and rural, social conservatives that make consensus-building difficult.
Political dynamics within the Conservative Party have been even more complicated by the latest polling numbers. Tory insiders now admit that internal Ontario Tory polling shows that the Tories are down 15 points to the Liberals in Ontario. The party is known for its churning leadership and for turning against its leaders at the first sign of a scandal. Historically, as recently as 2006 when they won their first minority government with only 36 percent national support and then winning a subsequent majority in 2011 with just under 40 percent.
Pierre Poilievre, the new leader of federal Conservatives, is currently barnstorming the country campaigning for a Canada-wide Conservative victory. His next major election tour will be in Atlantic Canada. He will be back in Toronto this Sunday. His campaign rallies have attracted huge numbers of people, though crowd size is not always a good predictor of election success.
Amanda Galbraith, who used to work for the party reminisced about the party’s highs and lows. In 2006, if we were polling 38, we would have been doing a victory jig!” she said.
The other big news is that Mark Carney has been noticeably absent from major public events recently. This comes on the heels of Trump’s surprise executive order to slap a 25 percent tariff on all auto imports. Carney was in Windsor, Ontario, literally hours beforehand making this announcement, further emphasizing his commitment to addressing these vital economic concerns. These tariffs threaten the existence of Canada’s automotive industry. At the same time, Carney’s lack of presence at public events makes you wonder what his plan is for the remainder of the campaign.
Just two months ago, polling data showed the Conservatives with a comfortable lead at 43 percent. The Charest Liberals came in a dismal third at just 25 percent. For all this sunny optimism, political commentator Kory Teneycke warns that the Conservative war room should still keep its guard up. “The alarm bells should be going off inside Conservative headquarters,” he noted.
Additionally, plenty of voters are changing their party allegiances as they see which candidates come up with the best ideas and approaches. Joseph Fourre expressed his evolving political stance: “I’ve lived my life and grew up NDP and I swang Liberal, and I think you know after coming here today, you know, my vote is going closer to Pierre, just for what he wants to do in regards to the crime and to the fentanyl.”
As the second week of the campaign begins, the Conservatives remain in deep waters trying to navigate this complex storm. The party’s ability to address internal divisions and respond effectively to external pressures will be crucial in determining their electoral success.
