Former President Donald Trump often recalls the moment when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited his Mar-a-Lago resort during his first term. The two leaders shared a meal that included what Trump described as “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen.” This visit was about so much more than sweets. On that day, Trump shared with Xi details of military strikes he had just ordered in Syria. This contrasting imagery of American hospitality alongside aggressive military posturing captures the contradictions in U.S.-China relations under Trump.
As tensions rise, Trump’s approach to China has evolved into a high-stakes game of diplomacy, filled with provocations that could complicate any joint anti-China front among U.S. allies. The administration’s new Indo-Pacific strategy includes using the rules-based trade agreements we have with allies and partners to isolate, pressure and punish China. Most observers would say it’s not working at all.
The Roots of the Trade War
The ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China has almost a mythological origin that stretches as far back as the U.S. and China’s economic relationship. Some analysts argue that the U.S. has won itself a superpower enemy. They claim this was achieved by creating an addiction to inexpensive consumer goods manufactured in China. The irony would not be lost on those long familiar with the story of decades of evolution of trade policy.
During a recent address, Trump emphasized that for years, the U.S. has been “ripped off and taken advantage of by China and others.” He highlighted the trade deficit as a central issue, asserting that it is time for America to take a stand.
“Look, for years we’ve been ripped off and taken advantage of by China and others, in all fairness, but … that’s the big one,” – Donald Trump
Many in the U.S. policy community share a deep conviction that transformational change is necessary. They’re calling for the country to rethink our global trade partnerships and encouraging a stronger approach to address China’s economically predatory behavior.
The Challenges of Coalition Building
Trump is doing all he can to build a bipartisan wall of resistance against China. His provocations in the Western hemisphere would badly counteract those efforts. Other critics say the extreme anti-European sentiment that runs deep within the administration is an even more daunting obstacle to forming a strong united front among allies.
Recent remarks made by Trump reflect his disdain for the European Union, which he believes has had detrimental effects on American trade. He stated,
“The EU has been very tough over the years … I always say it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade.” – Donald Trump
That’s the warning that newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has sounded. For him, the old UK-Washington relationship is changing, undercutting efforts to project a more powerful allied front against China.
China’s desire to conduct all firestorm negotiations on the technical, lower-level channel of formal diplomacy makes U.S.-China relations more complicated. Analysts note that while Trump’s personal chemistry with Xi Jinping may play a role in discussions, it remains essential to recognize that Xi’s negotiating style is far different from that of American leaders.
“President Xi Jinping … is not a negotiator. His role is not to be engaged in a trade negotiation; instead it’s the working level, the bureaucrats, the functionaries negotiate the deal,” – Zongyuan Zoe Liu
Trump’s tactics assume that threats of significant consequences will compel China into negotiations. Many remain unwilling to bet on such an all-in approach producing fruitful fruits.
The Unpredictability of Trump’s Approach
Yet, for all of the drama that surrounds it, Trump’s improvisational foreign policy has many foreign policy experts worried about the long-term damage of his actions to global stability. In the past, policymakers and academics argued that the close economic and political ties U.S.-China relations had created made military conflict unlikely. The current dynamics portend an ever more precariousness connectedness between the two.
Janet Yellen recently commented on the state of affairs, highlighting the prohibitive tariffs imposed on China as indicators of a broader economic conflict.
“We’re now in a huge (trade) war with China, and the tariffs that have been imposed on China are what I would call prohibitive,” – Janet Yellen
This uncertainty about how exactly Trump would act is what has both economists and foreign policy specialists so alarmed. Jason Furman remarked on America’s reliability as a partner in international diplomacy, emphasizing the challenges that lie ahead:
“They’re going to result in massive impacts on the United States and the global economy. No one knows where these policies are headed.” – Janet Yellen
The unpredictability surrounding Trump’s approach raises concerns among economists and foreign policy experts alike. Jason Furman remarked on America’s reliability as a partner in international diplomacy, emphasizing the challenges that lie ahead:
“The US right now is an incredibly unreliable partner to anyone in the world, and I don’t know how we are going to get back to being reliable,” – Jason Furman
