The Canadian recreational home market is bracing for a third-straight year of double-digit price increases. In 2024, experts are forecasting new highs for the median price of single-family homes across most regions. Abela noted that Alberta is at the top of the forecast, with a median price approaching $1.3 million, for a two per cent bump. British Columbia isn’t far behind, with a median price forecast of $951,762, projecting a two per cent increase.
The trend is not confined only to Southern states. Canada’s weighted average recreational areas are expecting a four per cent YOY increase, which would raise their median price to $652,808. Atlantic Canada is forecasting the highest increase at eight per cent, bringing the median price there to $498,852. At the same time, Quebec is projecting 7.5 per cent growth, with a new median price of $457,198.
In Ontario, the median price is forecast to increase by one per cent to $647,107. The area that includes Manitoba and Saskatchewan is projecting the highest increase at 4.5 per cent, to a median of $310,052. Canada’s all-type overall vacation home weighted median price is scheduled to increase. When taking out their regional variances, it will jump by 2.3 percent on the year, hitting $627,700.
"Looking ahead, recreational property prices are expected to rise modestly, driven by ongoing supply shortages," said Soper.
In the pandemic era, the entire market exploded with extreme bidding wars and low inventories. Now, the landscape has quieted down. While the once-saturated frenzy of demand for recreational properties has calmed, demand has never been higher.
"The pandemic-era scramble for recreational properties, once reminiscent of a modern-day gold rush, has thankfully eased — along with the chaos of bidding wars and thin inventories," stated Soper.
Even with the overall mainstream market being more vulnerable to the economic headwinds, much like the broader retail market, the recreational segment remains stronger. Indeed, even in times of market uncertainty, the wave of demand for vacation residences continues.
"While the mainstream market is more sensitive to economic shifts, demand in the recreational segment remains steadfast, even during periods of market hesitation," Soper added.
