With Canada’s next national election on the horizon, the political scene is buzzed with vitriolic language and economic woes. Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, both prominent figures in Canadian politics, are vying for the leadership amid growing concerns over Canada’s economic ties with the United States. Carney, who has taken every opportunity to tell us about the lessons Canadians need to learn, has so far failed to explain what those lessons are. On the campaign tour on Sunday night, Poilievre laid out his vision for the future of Canada. Further complicating fiscal math, he campaigned on tax cuts, naturally and he pledged to boost military spending.
The election campaign will conclude in a national vote on 28 April. Poilievre’s “elbows up” slogan gives the tone for this election, positing a belligerent, combative attitude. Canadians continue to be the unfortunate front line in America’s dangerous economic game of policy musical chairs. Voters respond to any version of the “elbows up” mantra. As Carney pointed out on Sunday, the greater challenge is just surviving the economic punches raining in from below.
Both Carney and Poilievre recognize that there is no magic bullet to get Canada out of our economic quagmire. They have a hard road before them. At the same time, they need to temper Canadians’ expectations and prepare against an impending self-inflicted U.S. trade war. Carney calls this threat existential in nature. He issues a stark warning that US President Donald Trump wants to “destroy us so America can control us.”
Trump’s presidency – though not directly on Canada’s ballot – casts a huge shadow in this election. His bluster about annexing Canada and reimposing tariffs have created a chilling effect among many Canadian voters. A perennial Achilles heel in the Canadian economy has been Canada’s weak productivity, a weakness that leaves it vulnerable in times of trade disputes. And Carolyn Rogers of the Bank of Canada underscored this. She explained why this measure is important, “Labour productivity measures the value an economy produces per hour of work. Moving the productivity needle strongly implies discovering approaches for Americans to produce more value in the hours they spend at work.”
Even with these difficulties, Poilievre is undaunted. Yet he has condemned the current Liberal Party government for supposedly putting Canadians “at the mercy of the Americans.” Yet his critique is devoid of a reasonable solution on how to fix this aspiration vs. reality conundrum. Poilievre’s campaign platform is full of “bold and beautiful” tax cuts. Among other things, he hopes to pay for new spending initiatives, including subsidizing apprenticeships for trades workers.
“We will stare down this unprovoked threat with steely resolve because, be assured, Canadians are tough, we are hardy and we stand up for ourselves,” Poilievre asserted.
As this election campaign goes on, the two parties have been nearly neck-and-neck in polls. The outcome may hinge on how they address Trump’s threats and reassure voters who are equally angered and alarmed by his rhetoric. Since Trump’s return to the White House this January, his continuing threats have only raised the United States’ tensions with China.
"I will insist the president recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada," Poilievre declared. "I will insist that he stop tariffing our nation, and at the same time I will strengthen our country so that we can be capable of standing on our own two feet and standing up to the Americans where and when necessary."
Carney has likewise talked about the need to be stand tough in the face of US pressure. He warned that Canadians should always remember the betrayals of the past while shoring up against those of the future.
"We are over the shock of that betrayal, and it is a betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons," Carney remarked.
This election is perhaps the most important turning point as Canada retraces its steps and tries to figure out how best to deal with its biggest trading partner. The risk of decoupling from the US now represents the biggest potential risk to Canadians’ standard of living. Carney and Poilievre need to do more than issue vague promises or whistles to address these threats and strengthen Canada’s economic immune system.
