In a significant shift in defense strategy, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently urged European leaders to shoulder the primary responsibility for providing aid to Ukraine. Speaking at an international defense forum, Hegseth emphasized the need for both lethal and nonlethal support, highlighting a pivotal moment for European defense collaboration. He also proposed that European nations increase their defense spending from the current 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent, stressing a more robust defense infrastructure in light of decreasing American support.
Amidst these developments, German Chancellor-presumptive Friedrich Merz addressed the World Economic Forum with a stark warning, stating that it is "five minutes to midnight for Europe" regarding its defense posture. Merz expressed concerns over the reliability of the American security guarantee, suggesting that Europe must develop its own defense capabilities.
“After [President] Donald Trump’s remarks last week … it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe” – Friedrich Merz
Merz's comments come at a time when he is actively seeking to form a coalition government with SPD leader Olaf Scholz. The CDU, led by Merz, secured 28.6 percent of the vote in the recent German federal election, marking its lowest margin of victory since 1949. Despite the setback, Merz and Scholz have agreed to work towards a centrist "grand coalition" government.
The shift in U.S. defense policy has implications for European security dynamics. Merz invited the SPD to support a measure to increase defense spending in January 2023, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. Scholz, who leads the SPD, has proposed a "smart and targeted change of the debt rule" to facilitate increased defense borrowing. However, Scholz has maintained a cautious stance on military aid to Ukraine, refusing to deliver 500km-range Taurus missiles due to concerns about escalating military tensions.
“it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe” – Friedrich Merz
The political landscape in Germany is further complicated by the rising popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which garnered 20.8 percent of the vote in the recent election. The AfD's stance on migration has eroded support for both the CDU and SPD, adding another layer of complexity to coalition negotiations.
Amid these political shifts, Merz has advocated for Germany to establish its own defense capabilities independent of NATO, underscoring a potential shift in European defense strategy.
“whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form” – Friedrich Merz
“or whether we will have to establish a European defence capability much more quickly” – Friedrich Merz
International analysts have weighed in on these developments. Less described Merz's statements as "a serious statement about his and Germany’s support for a stronger Europe." Meanwhile, Grimes argued that enhanced European capabilities could strengthen NATO rather than replace it.
“Europe stepping up its defence game wouldn’t weaken NATO; it would strengthen the alliance, boost transatlantic ties, and improve cooperation” – Grimes
“the real issue isn’t autonomy for its own sake – it’s about boosting deterrence” – Grimes
“Enhanced European capabilities can only reinforce, not replace, that longstanding umbrella” – Grimes
The reduction in U.S. support for European defense has prompted calls for increased investment and strategic re-evaluation. The shift could potentially alter the balance of power in the region, prompting European nations to reassess their defense priorities.
