Ecuador's political landscape faces turmoil as President Daniel Noboa claims irregularities marred the first round of the presidential election. Despite advancing to the second round, Noboa's lead over his leftist rival, Luisa González, is razor-thin, prompting authorities to call it a technical tie. The European Union’s observation mission deemed the election "transparent, well-organized, and peaceful," contrasting Noboa's assertions.
The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted a quick count that initially showed Noboa with a higher figure than the actual results. This discrepancy has fueled suspicions and debates. Much of the electoral violence has focused on Ecuador's coastal regions, notably in provinces where Noboa's campaign struggled. Guayas province alone reported over 3,000 homicides in 2024, according to public data.
Ecuador's elections agency reaffirmed its commitment to "guaranteeing fair and transparent elections" in a recent statement. Security analyst Jean Paul Pinto highlighted the broader context of these claims, noting a gradual erosion of democratic norms in Ecuador. Pinto observed Noboa's propensity for decisive actions via decree, including deploying the army against gangs and constructing a new prison for 800 violent criminals.
Noboa previously shocked Latin America by ordering police to raid the Mexican embassy in Quito last year to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas. Meanwhile, Luisa González echoed concerns similar to Noboa's. During an interview with Teleamazonas, she mentioned "inconsistencies" in voting across various provinces and emphasized that "there have been many irregularities."
“inconsistencies” in the vote in certain provinces throughout Ecuador. – González
“There have been many irregularities.” – González
The OAS Electoral Observation Mission swiftly responded with a statement denying any irregularities affecting the election outcome.
“the results presented by the National Electoral Council (CNE) of Ecuador coincide with the data obtained through the quick count conducted by the Mission, and remain within the margin of error.” – OAS Electoral Observation Mission
“neither identified nor received any indication of widespread irregularities that could alter the election results.” – OAS Electoral Observation Mission
According to recent tallies, González secured nearly 49% in Guayas province compared to Noboa’s 43.7%. Pinto speculated on Noboa’s leadership style amid these electoral challenges.
“Maybe he thinks that the government is like the private sector,” – Pinto
